01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
J2 League25°3,6 mm11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Tegevajaro Miyazakivs
Hokkaido Consadole SapporoThe model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (43%)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · J2 League
1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43%X 27%30% Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · 2
43%
27%
30%
Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo's recent ability to find the net in ten consecutive league outings makes them an intriguing side to watch in this match-up. However, the visitors' defensive frailties could be their undoing against a Tegevajaro Miyazaki team that boasts a marginal edge in the statistical model. With expected goals leaning toward the hosts at 1.49 compared to Sapporo's 1.20, Miyazaki appear capable of using their home advantage to exploit any lapses at the back.
The probability model suggests a narrow edge for the hosts, favoring them to win at 43% compared to Sapporo's 30%. Most frequently forecasted scorelines such as 1-1 and 1-0 further underline the likelihood of a tightly contested affair. This, coupled with a not-so-significant lean toward over 2.5 goals at 51%, indicates that goals might be at a premium. The damp conditions expected in Miyazaki, with 4.8 mm of rain, could also suppress the free-flowing football that typically yields high scores.
Despite the small head-to-head sample, form and expected goals present a clear narrative. Miyazaki have the tools to capitalize on their visitors' vulnerabilities, while Sapporo, riding high on their scoring streak, must tighten defensively. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most plausible outcome, yet a slim 1-0 victory for Miyazaki is not out of reach.
The model's lean towards the hosts underscores Tegevajaro Miyazaki as the side with the statistical edge in this contest.
Tegevajaro MiyazakiForm DDLLW
Key players
- Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Yota ShimokawaLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
- Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Hokkaido Consadole SapporoForm LLLLD
Key players
- Haruto ShiraiFxG 0.34 · xT 0.15
- Ryunosuke UmetsuCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
- Vinicius Silveira PeixotoLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Predicted score matrix
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →
Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–17.8%
0–24.9%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.5%
1–27.3%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.5%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,49–1,20
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.90
Over 2,551%
@1.87
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Yusei Toshida to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Yusei Toshida to score33%
- Ryunosuke Umetsu to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki | X | 2 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59
Statistics
Key facts
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (6–10)
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (7–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
| The goalkeepers | Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki) | Tomoki Tagawa (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 14 |
| Save % | 70% | 52% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Oita Trinita – Fujieda MYFC26 September 2026
- Iwaki FC – Vegalta Sendai26 September 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – Albirex Niigata26 September 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Sagan Tosu26 September 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Yokohama FC26 September 2026
- Jubilo Iwata – Vanraure Hachinohe26 September 2026
- Tokushima Vortis – Tochigi City26 September 2026
- FC Imabari – Shonan Bellmare26 September 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Ventforet Kofu26 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo according to our model?
The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43%, draw 27%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.