01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Jubilo Iwata to win61%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
J2 League21°36,2 mm9 km/h
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Jubilo Iwatavs
Vanraure HachinoheThe model's lean: 1 · Jubilo Iwata (61%)
Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe · J2 League
1 · Jubilo Iwata 61%X 25%14% Vanraure Hachinohe · 2
61%
25%
14%
Analysis: Jubilo Iwata – Vanraure Hachinohe
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Jubilo Iwata finds themselves in a favorable position ahead of their clash with Vanraure Hachinohe. The model gives the hosts a commanding 61% chance of victory, reflecting home advantage. In contrast, the visitors are pegged at a modest 14%, suggesting a challenging outing for them. The hosts have been potent at home, winning 55% of their matches all-time (22 played), and their expected goals of 1.79 further emphasize their attacking prowess.
Vanraure Hachinohe, meanwhile, face an uphill battle. Their expected goals sit at a mere 0.79, underscoring their struggles in finding the back of the net. The likely scorelines of 1-0 or 2-0 mirror this sentiment, with 1-0 at a 13% likelihood and 2-0 at 12%. Jubilo Iwata's defense seems poised to stifle any offensive efforts from the visitors.
With a 48% probability, the over 2.5 goals market doesn't show a strong lean, suggesting a tighter affair. Similarly, the both-teams-to-score probability hovers at 46%, indicating that Vanraure Hachinohe might struggle to breach the hosts' defense. The small head-to-head sample means we can't weigh it heavily here, so the focus remains on current form and expected goals.
For value seekers, the standout angle lies with Jubilo Iwata's win probability, with the model favoring the home side at 61%. The most likely result remains a solid 1-0 or 2-0 win for Jubilo Iwata, both scenarios aligning with the underlying data.
Jubilo IwataForm LWWLW
Key players
- Ryunosuke OtaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.21
- Joao Victor Lopes do Nascimento SilveiraFxG 1.11 · xT 0.03
- Kensuke FujiwaraCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Vanraure HachinoheForm LLWDL
Key players
- Ryusei TakaoFxG 0.60 · xT 0.07
- Fumiya UnokiFxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
- William Amen OwieRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Jubilo Iwata – Vanraure Hachinohe
Predicted score matrix
Vanraure Hachinohe →
Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–15.7%
0–22.4%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–013.2%
1–111.0%
1–24.2%
1–31.1%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–012.1%
2–19.6%
2–23.8%
2–31.0%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–07.2%
3–15.7%
3–22.3%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–13.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.2-012%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,79–0,79
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.74
Over 2,548%
@2.04
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Jubilo Iwata to win61%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Tokumo Kawai to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Tokumo Kawai to score23%
- Shoma Takayoshi to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Jubilo Iwata61% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jubilo Iwata | X | 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 3.45 | 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.62 | 3.45 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 3.45 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 1.67 | 3.61 | 5.06 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59
Statistics
Key facts
- Jubilo Iwata win 55% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jubilo Iwata
Vanraure Hachinohe
Jubilo Iwata (8–7)
Vanraure Hachinohe (3–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jubilo Iwata
Vanraure Hachinohe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jubilo Iwata
Vanraure Hachinohe
| The goalkeepers | Ayumi Niekawa (Jubilo Iwata) | Teruhiro Sasaki (Vanraure Hachinohe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 8 |
| Save % | 71% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jubilo Iwata vs Vanraure Hachinohe according to our model?
The model gives Jubilo Iwata a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jubilo Iwata 61%, draw 25%, Vanraure Hachinohe 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.