01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J2 League14°12,2 mm5 km/h
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Montedio YamagataBalanced & physical0–2
Tegevajaro MiyazakiPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (42%)
Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · J2 League
1 · Montedio Yamagata 31%X 27%42% Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 2
31%
27%
42%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J2 League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Montedio Yamagata win 31%, draw 27%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Montedio Yamagata 1.22, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Montedio Yamagata or draw 58%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw 69%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Tegevajaro Miyazaki's seven-match unbeaten streak looms large over this J2 League fixture. Their ability to control possession has paid dividends, allowing them to climb steadily above Montedio Yamagata in both points and expected points. Miyazaki have amassed 17 points against Yamagata's 13, reinforcing their position as the model's favored side with a 42% probability of winning.
This matchup might hinge on how well Yamagata can disrupt Miyazaki's possession-based approach. While the home side is known for its balanced and physical play, they will need to translate that into goals. The expected goals (xG) are tightly matched, with Yamagata at 1.22 and Miyazaki at 1.29, indicating a potentially close affair. The likelihood of both teams finding the net sits just above 50%, emphasizing the fine margins in play.
The recent rain could dampen the goal-scoring festivity, though it's already considered in the model's metrics. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, yet a 0-1 victory for the visitors is also plausible at 10%. Miyazaki's defensive edge, conceding fewer expected goals per match, further cements their advantage, particularly in adverse conditions that might stifle Yamagata's physical tactics.
The match is likely to be competitive, but Miyazaki's unbeaten run and control could see them eke out a narrow victory.
Montedio YamagataForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #10xP/match #14Points #15
Key players
- Ryotaro NakamuraCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
- Hayate SugiiLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
- Ayumu KawaiRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Tegevajaro MiyazakiForm WDDDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #16xP/match #2Points #8
Key players
- Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
- Yota ShimokawaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
- Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 31% · Draw 27% · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Montedio YamagataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,67fair 13,05-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Tegevajaro MiyazakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,70fair 11,68-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Predicted score matrix
Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–110.1%
0–26.8%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.5%
1–113.2%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.0%
2–17.8%
2–25.0%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.2%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-08%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,22–1,29
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.82
Over 2,546%
@2.01
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Keigo Hashimoto to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Keigo Hashimoto to score23%
- Riku Yamauchi to be booked21%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Montedio Yamagata | X | 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.22 | 3.31 | 2.27 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Tegevajaro Miyazaki win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.43 to 2.27 (−7%).
1+13 %
33 %28 %
2.86 → 3.22
X+2 %
31 %26 %
3.25 → 3.31
2-7 %
43 %38 %
2.43 → 2.27
Over 2,5+2 %
50 %45 %
1.98 → 2.01
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Montedio Yamagata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Montedio Yamagata (11–9)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (17–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Montedio Yamagata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Montedio Yamagata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Montedio Yamagata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 17 |
| xPoints | 13.7 | 19 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Montedio Yamagata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 391 | 301 |
| Passes against per match | 359 | 327 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.4 | 32.2 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Montedio Yamagata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| Other | Montedio Yamagata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata) | Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 14 |
| Save % | 83% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fujieda MYFC – Tokushima Vortis24 October 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Yokohama FC24 October 2026
- Shonan Bellmare – Tochigi City25 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Jubilo Iwata25 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Ventforet Kofu25 October 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – FC Imabari25 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Vanraure Hachinohe25 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo25 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki according to our model?
The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 31%, draw 27%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Montedio Yamagata and 1.29 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X) 58%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.