Oita Trinita vs Ventforet Kofu: Prediction & Odds (25 Oct 2026)

J2 League25 October 202624°17 km/h

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Oita TrinitaBalanced & physical

1–1

Ventforet KofuLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Oita Trinita (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ventforet Kofu @ 4.45 (+39 %)

1 · Oita Trinita 37%X 31%31% Ventforet Kofu · 2

37%

31%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Oita Trinita vs Ventforet Kofu (J2 League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Oita Trinita win 37%, draw 31%, Ventforet Kofu win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Oita Trinita 1.23, Ventforet Kofu 0.97. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Oita Trinita or draw 69%, Ventforet Kofu or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Oita Trinita – Ventforet Kofu

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The text contains a factual error: it labels the match-specific expected-goals figures (1.23 vs 0.97) as the "xG per match" season metric, when the FACTS show the season-average xG per match is actually Oita 1.0 vs Kofu 0.84. Corrected text:

Oita Trinita's edge in the head-to-head against Ventforet Kofu is solid but not commanding, with 3 wins to Kofu's 2 in the six matches played since 2023. While this might hint at a slight upper hand for the hosts, the sample size is modest, diluting its predictive power. What shines more distinctly is Oita's current form, riding a wave of three consecutive wins. This momentum underscores their confidence and sharpness on the field, an aspect that could be pivotal despite the small head-to-head advantage.

When diving into the season-long expected goals (xG) metrics, the hosts show a modest edge, generating 1.0 xG per match compared to Kofu's 0.84. For this specific matchup, the model projects 1.23 expected goals for Oita against 0.97 for Kofu, reinforcing their attacking edge. Furthermore, Trinita's defensive solidity is evident, conceding just 1.0 expected goals against per match, while Kofu is more vulnerable at 1.3. This defensive gap might be crucial, especially given Oita's balanced and physical style, which may effectively counter Kofu's more direct approach.

Oddsmakers and model predictions both lean towards a tight contest, with the most probable scorelines being 1-1 and 1-0, both reflecting a close affair. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at a low 38%, suggesting that a high-scoring match is unlikely. With both teams to score at a 45% likelihood, the data points towards a game where defenses might just edge out the offenses.

For bettors, the standout angle emerges from the valuation on Kofu at odds of 4.1 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. Despite the model's 31% win probability for Kofu, these bookmakers provide a significant 28% edge. It's a compelling option for those looking to capitalize on value, especially given the visitors' potential to disrupt Oita's winning streak.

Oita Trinita

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #14xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Matheus PereiraCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Yuto MisaoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Ayuki MiyakawaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19

Ventforet Kofu

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #17xP/match #15Points #20

Key players

Sho ArakiCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Oita Trinita 37% · Draw 31% · Ventforet Kofu 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Ventforet KofuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,07fair 21,95-13 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Oita TrinitaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,88fair 13,89-43 %

Miss

Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Ventforet Kofu

Predicted score matrix

Ventforet Kofu →

Oita Trinita →

0–011.4%

0–110.3%

0–25.2%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–013.2%

1–113.6%

1–26.4%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.4%

2–18.1%

2–24.0%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.4%

3–13.3%

3–21.6%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-011%
4.0-110%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,23–0,97

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

124%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

@1.68EV+4%

Over 2,538%

@2.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Kotaro Arima to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Yamato Naito to score29%
Yuta Koide to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ventforet Kofu31% probability@4.45PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
2 · Ventforet Kofu31% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
2 · Ventforet Kofu31% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+31%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oita Trinita	X	2 · Ventforet Kofu
Betsafe	1.82	3.15	EV+ 31% 4.20
LeoVegas	1.83	EV+ 0% 3.20	EV+ 23% 3.95
Nordicbet	1.82	3.15	EV+ 31% 4.20
Pinnacle	1.85	EV+ 7% 3.41	EV+ 39% 4.45

Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59

Odds movement

1+2 %

53 %48 %

1.82 → 1.85

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.41

2+2 %

24 %19 %

4.35 → 4.45

Over 2,5+2 %

44 %39 %

2.23 → 2.28

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Oita Trinita 3Draw 1Ventforet Kofu 2

Goals: 8–8 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Oita Trinita come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oita Trinita

Ventforet Kofu

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oita Trinita (16–9)

Ventforet Kofu (9–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Ventforet Kofu

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Ventforet Kofu

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oita Trinita	Ventforet Kofu
Points	17	10
xPoints	15.6	15
xG per match	1	0.84
xGA per match	1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.15

Playing style	Oita Trinita	Ventforet Kofu
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.44
xT per match	0.87	0.78
xTA per match	0.92	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	20	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.72	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.67
Passes per match	320	297
Passes against per match	376	400
Switches of play per match	23.4	23.6
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Oita Trinita	Ventforet Kofu
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	4.1	4.5
Corners against per match	5.3	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.24	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.46

Other	Oita Trinita	Ventforet Kofu
Throw-in control	0.78	0.76

The goalkeepers	Kyung Gun Mun (Oita Trinita)	John Higashi (Ventforet Kofu)
Saves	35	25
Save %	80%	56%
xG prevented	63%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oita Trinita

Fixtures, form & tips

Ventforet Kofu

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oita Trinita vs Ventforet Kofu according to our model?

The model gives Oita Trinita a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 37%, draw 31%, Ventforet Kofu 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Oita Trinita vs Ventforet Kofu?

The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Oita Trinita and 0.97 for Ventforet Kofu, 2.21 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Oita Trinita or draw (1X) 69%, Ventforet Kofu or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.