01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sagan Tosu to win64%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
J2 League22°12,7 mm16 km/h
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Sagan TosuPossession & high press2–0
Vanraure HachinoheLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sagan Tosu (64%)
Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe · J2 League
1 · Sagan Tosu 64%X 20%16% Vanraure Hachinohe · 2
64%
20%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe (J2 League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sagan Tosu win 64%, draw 20%, Vanraure Hachinohe win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Sagan Tosu 1.84, Vanraure Hachinohe 0.73. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: Sagan Tosu or draw 84%, Vanraure Hachinohe or draw 36%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sagan Tosu – Vanraure Hachinohe
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Sagan Tosu's 64% win probability underlines their dominant position against Vanraure Hachinohe. With expected goals of 1.84 for the hosts compared to just 0.73 for the visitors, the numbers suggest a comfortable evening for Tosu. Their approach of possession and high pressing is well-suited to breaking down Hachinohe's low defensive block, although the wet conditions with 32.8 mm of rain could dampen the attacking fluency expected.
The likelihood of a 1-0 (14%) or 2-0 (13%) victory for Tosu matches their superior xPoints of 18.8 against Hachinohe's 15.3, reinforcing the model's lean towards the home side. Hachinohe's direct play and slightly better xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.24 vs 0.17) may offer rare moments of threat but are unlikely to tilt the balance significantly. The model gives a 44% chance to both teams scoring, suggesting a controlled performance from the hosts.
From a betting perspective, the 2% value edge on Sagan Tosu at 1.6 odds with Betsafe and Nordicbet is a standout. With an xGA of 0.82, Tosu's defense is well prepared to handle Hachinohe's limited offensive threat, making a low-scoring victory the most sensible play here.
Sagan TosuForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #14
Key players
- Sora OgawaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
- Ayumu ToyodaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Kaito AbeCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Vanraure HachinoheForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #19xP/match #13Points #12
Key players
- Ryusei TakaoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.07
- Fumiya UnokiFxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
- William Amen OwieFxG 0.57 · xT 0.16
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sagan Tosu 64% · Draw 20% · Vanraure Hachinohe 16%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Sagan TosuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,99fair 7,25-17 %
MissMatchresultat - Vanraure Hachinohe FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 20,02fair 45,27-56 %
MissMatch prediction: Sagan Tosu – Vanraure Hachinohe
Predicted score matrix
Vanraure Hachinohe →
Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.0%
0–15.3%
0–22.0%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–013.8%
1–110.6%
1–23.7%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–013.0%
2–19.4%
2–23.4%
2–30.8%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.0%
3–15.8%
3–22.1%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–14.1%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-014%
- 2.2-013%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,84–0,73
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.79
Over 2,547%
@2.03
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sagan Tosu to win64%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Daichi Suzuki to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Daichi Suzuki to score20%
- Kakeru Yamauchi to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Sagan Tosu64% probability@1.64PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Sagan Tosu64% probability@1.60BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Sagan Tosu64% probability@1.60LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sagan Tosu | X | 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.60 | 3.55 | 5.10 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.60 | 3.55 | 5.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.60 | 3.55 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.64 | 3.83 | 5.33 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59
Odds movement
1+3 %
60 %55 %
1.59 → 1.64
X-1 %
27 %22 %
3.88 → 3.83
2+2 %
20 %15 %
5.21 → 5.33
Over 2,5+6 %
50 %45 %
1.92 → 2.03
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sagan Tosu
Vanraure Hachinohe
Sagan Tosu (12–15)
Vanraure Hachinohe (10–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sagan Tosu
Vanraure Hachinohe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sagan Tosu
Vanraure Hachinohe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sagan Tosu | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 14 |
| xPoints | 18.8 | 15.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 0.82 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Sagan Tosu | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 0.65 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 247 |
| Passes against per match | 281 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.2 | 13.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Sagan Tosu | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| Other | Sagan Tosu | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryota Izumori (Sagan Tosu) | Shogo Onishi (Vanraure Hachinohe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 21 |
| Save % | 67% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fujieda MYFC – Tokushima Vortis24 October 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Yokohama FC24 October 2026
- Shonan Bellmare – Tochigi City25 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Jubilo Iwata25 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Ventforet Kofu25 October 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – FC Imabari25 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo25 October 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe according to our model?
The model gives Sagan Tosu a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sagan Tosu 64%, draw 20%, Vanraure Hachinohe 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sagan Tosu vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
The model expects 1.84 goals (xG) for Sagan Tosu and 0.73 for Vanraure Hachinohe, 2.57 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sagan Tosu or draw (1X) 84%, Vanraure Hachinohe or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.