01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Shonan Bellmare to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
J2 League21°20,5 mm16 km/h
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Shonan BellmarePossession control2–1
Tochigi CityCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Shonan Bellmare (50%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.38 (+6 %)
Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City · J2 League
1 · Shonan Bellmare 50%X 24%26% Tochigi City · 2
50%
24%
26%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City (J2 League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Shonan Bellmare win 50%, draw 24%, Tochigi City win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Shonan Bellmare 1.71, Tochigi City 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Shonan Bellmare or draw 74%, Tochigi City or draw 50%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Shonan Bellmare – Tochigi City
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Numbers suggest a tight affair when Shonan Bellmare faces Tochigi City. With Bellmare unbeaten in their last seven league matches and scoring in nine straight, they're positioned to control the game. Their possession-based style will clash with Tochigi's counter-attacking approach, an intriguing tactical contrast. The most probable outcome, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw, though a 2-1 win for the hosts is also on the cards.
Despite Bellmare's unbeaten run, their expected goals per match stand at just 0.97, weaker than Tochigi's 1.4. This discrepancy points to Tochigi creating more quality chances, even if results haven't followed. Defensively, both sides show vulnerabilities, with expected goals against figures hovering around 1.5, indicating potential defensive lapses that could lead to goals for both teams.
The slight lean toward over 2.5 goals at 55% is reflected in the anticipated scorelines, though the rain could dampen scoring chances, already accounted for in the model's calculations. Still, the likelihood of both teams scoring sits at 57%, suggesting a competitive outing with goals from either side.
For bettors, there's value at home odds of 2.12 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model rates Bellmare's chances at 50%, translating to a 7% edge. While the hosts' recent form and scoring consistency suggest resilience, the numbers hint at a narrow victory. A 2-1 result seems plausible, with Bellmare leveraging their possession to edge out Tochigi in a match that might just pay the bills.
Shonan BellmareForm WDDDD
League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #12xP/match #18Points #6
Key players
- Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Yutaro HakamataCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Tochigi CityForm LLLDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #20xT #6xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Matej JonjićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
- Kazuki NishiyaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
- Atsushi YoshidaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Shonan Bellmare 50% · Draw 24% · Tochigi City 26%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Shonan BellmareBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,86fair 6,69-27 %
MissMatchresultat - Tochigi City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,32fair 13,79-47 %
MissMatch prediction: Shonan Bellmare – Tochigi City
Predicted score matrix
Tochigi City →
Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.2%
0–23.9%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.1%
1–111.5%
1–26.7%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.6%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.6%
3–15.5%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–13.4%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,19
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.38EV+6%
Over 2,555%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Shonan Bellmare to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Hiroto Yamada to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Hiroto Yamada to score25%
- Pedro Augusto Borges da Costa to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Shonan Bellmare50% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Shonan Bellmare | X | 2 · Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 6% 2.11 | 3.69 | 3.23 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 11:20
Odds movement
1-2 %
51 %41 %
2.15 → 2.11
X+3 %
30 %20 %
3.60 → 3.69
2+6 %
34 %24 %
3.04 → 3.23
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Shonan Bellmare are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Shonan Bellmare have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shonan Bellmare
Tochigi City
Shonan Bellmare (13–11)
Tochigi City (19–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Tochigi City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Tochigi City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 12 |
| xPoints | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 308 | 344 |
| Passes against per match | 285 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.1 | 29.7 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| Other | Shonan Bellmare | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare) | Jin-Hyeon Kim (Tochigi City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 55 | 50 |
| Save % | 85% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fujieda MYFC – Tokushima Vortis24 October 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Yokohama FC24 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Jubilo Iwata25 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Ventforet Kofu25 October 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – FC Imabari25 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Vanraure Hachinohe25 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo25 October 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Vegalta Sendai25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City according to our model?
The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shonan Bellmare 50%, draw 24%, Tochigi City 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi City?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Shonan Bellmare and 1.19 for Tochigi City, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X) 74%, Tochigi City or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.