J2 League17°27,9 mm9 km/h

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    Omiya ArdijaOmiya ArdijaPossession control
    2–2
    Yokohama FCYokohama FCPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Omiya Ardija (49%)

    Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama FC · J2 League

    1 · Omiya Ardija 49%X 26%26% Yokohama FC · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama FC (J2 League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Omiya Ardija win 49%, draw 26%, Yokohama FC win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Omiya Ardija 1.80, Yokohama FC 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Omiya Ardija or draw 74%, Yokohama FC or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Omiya Ardija – Yokohama FC

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    RB Omiya Ardija takes the field against Yokohama FC with a slight edge according to the model, which sees the hosts as 49% likely to win. The matchup features two teams that favor possession control, suggesting a midfield battle where each side tries to dictate tempo rather than break quickly and rely on counterattacks. Both are evenly matched on xG metrics, yet Omiya has a defensive advantage, allowing only 0.93 xGA per match compared to Yokohama's 1.2.

    The numbers present a potential lean towards Omiya, specifically highlighted by value betting opportunities at 2.32 odds on Betsafe and Nordicbet. This is crucial given the model rates the hosts with a 49% chance to win, offering a 13% edge at those odds. Despite Yokohama having a slight edge in points, the overall defensive metrics and expected goals favor the hosts.

    However, the most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest with 1-1 at 11% and 2-1 at 10%. With a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score, goals seem on the cards despite the rain forecast, which might suppress scoring to some extent. While the weather might make possession tricky, the statistics already account for this, pointing towards a match with attacking opportunities.

    In conclusion, the sharpest angle here is the value on Omiya to win at the provided odds. With a solid defensive foundation and the model's backing, they stand as the favored side in both the numbers and the betting market. Expect a closely contested match, potentially ending 2-1, with Omiya making the most of their defensive resilience.

    Omiya ArdijaOmiya Ardija
    Form DWDWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #6Points #4
    Key players
    • Hijiri KatoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
    • Kaishin SekiguchiRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    • Mauricio Caprini PintoRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.22
    Yokohama FCYokohama FC
    Form DWLDW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #3
    Key players
    • João Paulo Queiroz de MoraesLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.19
    • Kaili ShimboLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
    • Hinata OguraCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Omiya Ardija 49% · Draw 26% · Yokohama FC 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Omiya ArdijaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,03fair 6,03+0 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Yokohama FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,83fair 13,03-55 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Omiya Ardija – Yokohama FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Yokohama FC →
    Omiya Ardija →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–15.6%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–111.0%
    1–26.6%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–15.8%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–13.9%
    4+–22.4%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,80–1,22
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.38
    Over 2,558%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Omiya Ardija to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.38

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Omiya Ardija to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Carlos Antônio de Souza Júnior to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Carlos Antônio de Souza Júnior to score27%
    • Hinata Ogura to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Omiya Ardija49% probability@2.60PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
    • 1 · Omiya Ardija49% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • 1 · Omiya Ardija49% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Omiya ArdijaX2 · Yokohama FC
    Betsafe
    EV+ 23%
    2.52    		3.452.42
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 22%
    2.50    		3.452.35
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 23%
    2.52    		3.452.42
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 27%
    2.60    		3.842.44

    Odds updated 24 Oct, 08:19

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Yokohama FC win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.65 to 2.44 (−8%).

    1+11 %
    41 %36 %

    2.35 → 2.60

    X+2 %
    27 %22 %

    3.75 → 3.84

    2-8 %
    39 %34 %

    2.65 → 2.44

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Omiya Ardija
    Yokohama FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Omiya Ardija (21–11)
    Yokohama FC (23–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Omiya Ardija
    Ryuya Nishio: 295 passningar, xT 0.47NishioYusei Ozaki: 278 passningar, xT 0.5OzakiKaishin Sekiguchi: 196 passningar, xT 1.08SekiguchiGen Kato: 166 passningar, xT 0.22KatoThomas William Glover: 140 passningar, xT 0.13GloverHijiri Kato: 137 passningar, xT 0.64KatoMauricio Caprini Pinto: 134 passningar, xT 1.27PintoToya Izumi: 128 passningar, xT 0.11IzumiKota Nakayama: 85 passningar, xT 0.76NakayamaMatthew Edward: 70 passningar, xT -0.09EdwardYuta Toyokawa: 61 passningar, xT 0.09Toyokawa
    Yokohama FC
    Akinori Ichikawa: 186 passningar, xT 0.33IchikawaKyo Hosoi: 179 passningar, xT 0.35HosoiLeo Takae: 167 passningar, xT 0.05TakaeKatsuya Iwatake: 157 passningar, xT 0.23IwatakeToma Murata: 145 passningar, xT 0.05MurataKaili Shimbo: 139 passningar, xT 0.8ShimboTakuya Shimamura: 120 passningar, xT 0.23ShimamuraKota Yamada: 115 passningar, xT 0.15YamadaHayato Sugita: 107 passningar, xT 0.09SugitaMakito Ito: 100 passningar, xT 0.09ItoHinata Ogura: 75 passningar, xT 0.02Ogura
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Omiya Ardija
    Ryuya Nishio: 295 passningar, xT 0.47NishioYusei Ozaki: 278 passningar, xT 0.5OzakiKaishin Sekiguchi: 196 passningar, xT 1.08SekiguchiGen Kato: 166 passningar, xT 0.22KatoThomas William Glover: 140 passningar, xT 0.13GloverHijiri Kato: 137 passningar, xT 0.64KatoMauricio Caprini Pinto: 134 passningar, xT 1.27PintoToya Izumi: 128 passningar, xT 0.11IzumiKota Nakayama: 85 passningar, xT 0.76NakayamaMatthew Edward: 70 passningar, xT -0.09EdwardYuta Toyokawa: 61 passningar, xT 0.09Toyokawa
    Yokohama FC
    Akinori Ichikawa: 186 passningar, xT 0.33IchikawaKyo Hosoi: 179 passningar, xT 0.35HosoiLeo Takae: 167 passningar, xT 0.05TakaeKatsuya Iwatake: 157 passningar, xT 0.23IwatakeToma Murata: 145 passningar, xT 0.05MurataKaili Shimbo: 139 passningar, xT 0.8ShimboTakuya Shimamura: 120 passningar, xT 0.23ShimamuraKota Yamada: 115 passningar, xT 0.15YamadaHayato Sugita: 107 passningar, xT 0.09SugitaMakito Ito: 100 passningar, xT 0.09ItoHinata Ogura: 75 passningar, xT 0.02Ogura

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOmiya ArdijaYokohama FC
    Points2021
    xPoints16.617.5
    xG per match1.51.5
    xGA per match0.931.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.23
    Playing styleOmiya ArdijaYokohama FC
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.620.55
    xT per match1.21
    xTA per match0.81
    Won balls, offensive half1916
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.390.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.420.28
    Entries into the box per match1614
    Entries into the box against1012
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.7
    Passes per match358362
    Passes against per match218306
    Switches of play per match20.725.4
    Long balls per match3140
    Set piecesOmiya ArdijaYokohama FC
    xG from free kicks0.080.06
    Corners per match4.95.6
    Corners against per match5.14.2
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.720.57
    OtherOmiya ArdijaYokohama FC
    Throw-in control0.760.77
    The goalkeepersThomas William Glover (Omiya Ardija)Akinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)
    Saves2448
    Save %69%77%
    xG prevented52%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Omiya Ardija
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Yokohama FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama FC according to our model?

    The model gives Omiya Ardija a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Omiya Ardija 49%, draw 26%, Yokohama FC 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama FC?

    The model expects 1.80 goals (xG) for Omiya Ardija and 1.22 for Yokohama FC, 3.02 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Omiya Ardija or draw (1X) 74%, Yokohama FC or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.