Montedio Yamagata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo: Prediction & Odds (21 Oct 2026)

J2 League21 October 202617°8,6 mm13 km/h

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Montedio YamagataBalanced & physical

0–2

Hokkaido Consadole SapporoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Montedio Yamagata (41%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.80 (+6 %)

1 · Montedio Yamagata 41%X 28%31% Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · 2

41%

28%

31%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Montedio Yamagata win 41%, draw 28%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Montedio Yamagata 1.41, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Montedio Yamagata or draw 69%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo or draw 59%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

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Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Montedio Yamagata enters this clash with a slight edge, supported by model probabilities giving them a 41% chance of victory over Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo's 31%. The hosts have shown a bit more consistency this season, leading in both actual points (13 to 11) and expected points (13.7 to 11.0). Their balanced and physical playing style contrasts with the visitors’ possession control approach, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical battle.

Expected goals tilt in favor of Yamagata, 1.41 to 1.11, suggesting they might create more chances despite the visitors’ possession style. History, albeit a small sample from just two meetings, shows no clear dominance, with each side winning once. This head-to-head record should weigh less than recent form and expected goals metrics, where Yamagata has the edge.

The 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 13%, but don't overlook a potential 1-0 win for the hosts at 11%. With expected goals against identical at 1.2 for both teams, defenses might cancel each other out. The moderate expectation for goals is further dampened by the forecast of heavy rain, which typically suppresses scoring. This is reflected in the under 2.5 goals probability of 54%, slightly higher than the 46% for over 2.5.

While both teams to score sits at a narrow 51%, the under 2.5 goals market shows value. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.88 for the under, with the model suggesting a small edge at 54%. For sharper bettors, this under bet looks like a sensible play given the tactical setup and weather conditions.

Montedio Yamagata

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #8xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Ryotaro NakamuraCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Hayate SugiiLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Ayumu KawaiRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Form DLWLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #9xP/match #19Points #16

Key players

Shoya NoseCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Ryunosuke UmetsuCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Ryu TakaoRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 41% · Draw 28% · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Montedio YamagataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,58fair 10,00-24 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Hokkaido Consadole SapporoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,47fair 15,83-40 %

Miss

Match prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Predicted score matrix

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →

Montedio Yamagata →

0–08.4%

0–18.6%

0–25.0%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.9%

1–113.0%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.0%

2–18.9%

2–24.9%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.7%

3–14.2%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,11

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.89EV+2%

Over 2,546%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Junya Takahashi to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Junya Takahashi to score21%
Niki Urakami to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.528% probability@3.80BetMGM UKEV+6%reference odds
Both teams to score: No49% probability@2.12BetMGM UKEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.89PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Montedio Yamagata	X	2 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
BetMGM UK	2.20	3.45	2.90
Betsafe	2.30	3.25	2.80
LeoVegas	2.30	3.20	2.75
Nordicbet	2.30	3.25	2.80
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 2.44	3.52	2.78

Odds updated 21 Oct, 06:15

Odds movement

1+6 %

42 %37 %

2.31 → 2.44

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.48 → 3.52

2-3 %

36 %31 %

2.86 → 2.78

Over 2,5+5 %

53 %48 %

1.84 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Montedio Yamagata 1Draw 0Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montedio Yamagata

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Montedio Yamagata (11–9)

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (13–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

The teams in numbers

Performance	Montedio Yamagata	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Points	13	11
xPoints	13.7	11
xG per match	1.2	0.99
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.22

Playing style	Montedio Yamagata	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.61
xT per match	0.95	0.94
xTA per match	1	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	18	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.71
Passes per match	391	423
Passes against per match	360	261
Switches of play per match	21.5	32.5
Long balls per match	33	40

Set pieces	Montedio Yamagata	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	5	6
Corners against per match	5	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.58

Other	Montedio Yamagata	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)	Tomoki Tagawa (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo)
Saves	38	26
Save %	83%	58%
xG prevented	64%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Montedio Yamagata

Fixtures, form & tips

Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo according to our model?

The model gives Montedio Yamagata a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 41%, draw 28%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo?

The model expects 1.41 goals (xG) for Montedio Yamagata and 1.11 for Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, 2.52 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X) 69%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.