Vegalta Sendai vs FC Imabari Prediction: Home win 68% (21 Oct 2026)

J2 League21 October 202619°2,4 mm9 km/h

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Vegalta SendaiLow block & direct

FC ImabariCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Vegalta Sendai (68%)

1 · Vegalta Sendai 68%X 19%12% FC Imabari · 2

68%

19%

12%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vegalta Sendai vs FC Imabari (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Vegalta Sendai win 68%, draw 19%, FC Imabari win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Vegalta Sendai 2.29, FC Imabari 0.78. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Vegalta Sendai or draw 88%, FC Imabari or draw 32%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

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Analysis: Vegalta Sendai – FC Imabari

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Vegalta Sendai's unbeaten streak of 10 matches frames this encounter, and they carry a 68% win probability into the fixture against FC Imabari. Despite a small head-to-head sample showing a draw and a loss for the hosts, current form and expected goals heavily favor Vegalta. The model indicates a dominant performance, projecting 2.29 expected goals for the hosts against Imabari's 0.78. Sendai’s low defense and direct play profile contrasts with Imabari's counter-attack and crosses style.

The numbers suggest a clear pattern: Vegalta's robust defense, conceding just 0.62 xGA per match, contrasts sharply with Imabari's defensive frailties at 1.4 xGA. The likelihood of a low-scoring game may rise with the forecasted rain, which could suppress attacking fluency. However, the over 2.5 goals market leans at 59%—a nod to Sendai's attacking potential and Imabari's defensive leaks.

With 12% odds for a 2-0 scoreline, Sendai appears set to extend their unbeaten run convincingly. Despite the rain, goals seem likely. This clash leans strongly towards the home side, promising little respite for an Imabari side struggling against the odds.

Vegalta Sendai

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #10xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Masahiro SugataCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
Ryota TakadaCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.40 · xT 0.03

FC Imabari

Form LLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #18xT #6xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Kengo FuruyamaRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
Hikaru AraiRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.15
Rei UmekiRWBxG 0.20 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Vegalta Sendai – FC Imabari

Predicted score matrix

FC Imabari →

Vegalta Sendai →

0–04.9%

0–13.4%

0–21.4%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.4%

1–18.5%

1–23.2%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.2%

2–19.5%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.3%

3–17.3%

3–22.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–09.1%

4+–17.1%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.3-09%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,29–0,78

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.09

Over 2,559%

@1.75EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vegalta Sendai to win68%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vegalta Sendai to win68%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Hiroto Iwabuchi to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Hiroto Iwabuchi to score27%
Gabriel Gomes Ferreira to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Vegalta Sendai68% probability@1.52BetMGM UKEV+4%reference odds
Over 2.559% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vegalta Sendai	X	2 · FC Imabari
BetMGM UK	EV+ 4% 1.52	4.10	5.40
Betsafe	1.42	4.25	6.10
LeoVegas	1.42	4.20	6.00
Nordicbet	1.42	4.25	6.10
Pinnacle	1.45	4.27	7.27

Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.23 to 2.09 (−6%).

1+4 %

68 %63 %

1.40 → 1.45

X-6 %

24 %19 %

4.56 → 4.27

2+6 %

16 %11 %

6.83 → 7.27

Over 2,5+8 %

59 %54 %

1.62 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Vegalta Sendai 0Draw 1FC Imabari 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Vegalta Sendai are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vegalta Sendai

FC Imabari

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vegalta Sendai (18–8)

FC Imabari (14–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vegalta Sendai

FC Imabari

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vegalta Sendai

FC Imabari

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vegalta Sendai	FC Imabari
Points	24	11
xPoints	21.9	13
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	0.62	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.12

Playing style	Vegalta Sendai	FC Imabari
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.5	0.38
xT per match	0.94	0.99
xTA per match	0.61	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	22	14
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.67	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.65
Passes per match	259	294
Passes against per match	333	337
Switches of play per match	23.6	17.7
Long balls per match	38	33

Set pieces	Vegalta Sendai	FC Imabari
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.14
Corners per match	5.7	4.2
Corners against per match	4.1	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.6

Other	Vegalta Sendai	FC Imabari
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Akihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)	Genta Ito (FC Imabari)
Saves	12	18
Save %	60%	75%
xG prevented	49%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vegalta Sendai

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Imabari

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vegalta Sendai vs FC Imabari according to our model?

The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vegalta Sendai 68%, draw 19%, FC Imabari 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Vegalta Sendai vs FC Imabari?

The model expects 2.29 goals (xG) for Vegalta Sendai and 0.78 for FC Imabari, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Vegalta Sendai or draw (1X) 88%, FC Imabari or draw (X2) 32% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.