01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tokushima Vortis or draw (1X)74%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J2 League25°0,6 mm24 km/h
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Tokushima VortisPossession controlvs
Vanraure HachinoheLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Tokushima Vortis (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe @ 4.10 (+13 %)
Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe · J2 League
1 · Tokushima Vortis 44%X 28%28% Vanraure Hachinohe · 2
44%
28%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Tokushima Vortis win 44%, draw 28%, Vanraure Hachinohe win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Tokushima Vortis 1.49, Vanraure Hachinohe 1.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Tokushima Vortis or draw 72%, Vanraure Hachinohe or draw 56%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tokushima Vortis – Vanraure Hachinohe
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Tokushima Vortis find themselves in a peculiar spot: despite sitting higher on the table with 14 points against Vanraure Hachinohe's 11, the underlying numbers suggest they might be skating on thin ice. The hosts have struggled to convert possession into quality chances, registering just 0.78 xG per match compared to the visitors' 0.95. This inefficiency could be problematic against a Vanraure side that, although content to sit deep and strike directly, has shown proficiency in maximizing their opportunities.
The model leans towards Tokushima with a 44% win probability, but the numbers hint at a closer contest. The expected goals tally, 1.49 to 1.03 in favor of Tokushima, mirrors this sentiment. While the possession-oriented hosts might edge the encounter, their defensive vulnerabilities — conceding an xGA of 1.3 — keep Vanraure well in the frame.
A small sample size in head-to-head clashes means we lean more on current form and xG metrics than history. The most likely scorelines suggest a narrow Tokushima win or a draw, with 1-1 and 1-0 emerging as the top picks. The over/under 2.5 goals split is nearly even at 46%, and both teams to score sits at 50%, indicating a balanced affair.
For those seeking value, the betting market throws some intriguing angles. With Vanraure available at odds of 3.75 on both Betsafe and Nordicbet, there's a 4% edge according to the model's 28% win probability. Similarly, the over 2.5 goals market offers a slender 2% edge at 2.22 odds with Betsafe. These angles might appeal to punters willing to back a tight, competitive game veering slightly off script.
Tokushima VortisForm WWLLD
League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #18xP/match #20Points #9
Key players
- Ken IwaoCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Daiki WatariFxG 0.20 · xT 0.04
- Kohei YamakoshiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Vanraure HachinoheForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #19xP/match #15Points #17
Key players
- Fumiya UnokiFxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
- Ryusei TakaoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.07
- William Amen OwieFxG 0.66 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Tokushima Vortis – Vanraure Hachinohe
Predicted score matrix
Vanraure Hachinohe →
Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–17.9%
0–24.3%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.6%
1–112.7%
1–26.4%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.2%
2–24.7%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.6%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,49–1,03
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.81
Over 2,546%
@2.02
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tokushima Vortis or draw (1X)74%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Lucas Barcelos Damasceno to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Lucas Barcelos Damasceno to score23%
- Shoma Takayoshi to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe28% probability@4.10PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe28% probability@4.00BetMGM UKEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tokushima Vortis | X | 2 · Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 1.86 | 3.30 | EV+ 10% 4.00 |
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.19 | EV+ 13% 4.10 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.25 to 2.02 (−10%).
1+4 %
53 %43 %
1.93 → 2.01
X-2 %
34 %24 %
3.24 → 3.19
2+2 %
29 %19 %
4.02 → 4.10
Over 2,5-10 %
49 %39 %
2.25 → 2.02
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tokushima Vortis
Vanraure Hachinohe
Tokushima Vortis (10–12)
Vanraure Hachinohe (9–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tokushima Vortis
Vanraure Hachinohe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tokushima Vortis
Vanraure Hachinohe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 0.78 | 0.95 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 14 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 367 | 250 |
| Passes against per match | 350 | 350 |
| Switches of play per match | 29 | 14 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| Other | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Kai Chidi Kitamura (Tokushima Vortis) | Shogo Onishi (Vanraure Hachinohe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 21 |
| Save % | 76% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
- Jubilo Iwata – Oita Trinita21 October 2026
- Ventforet Kofu – Yokohama FC21 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Sagan Tosu21 October 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo21 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Fujieda MYFC21 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – FC Imabari21 October 2026
- Shonan Bellmare – Iwaki FC21 October 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe according to our model?
The model gives Tokushima Vortis a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tokushima Vortis 44%, draw 28%, Vanraure Hachinohe 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Tokushima Vortis and 1.03 for Vanraure Hachinohe, 2.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tokushima Vortis or draw (1X) 72%, Vanraure Hachinohe or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.