01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Omiya Ardija or draw (1X)70%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
J2 League24°0,6 mm14 km/h
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Omiya ArdijaPossession controlvs
Kataller ToyamaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Omiya Ardija (43%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.75 (+15 %)
Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama · J2 League
1 · Omiya Ardija 43%X 28%29% Kataller Toyama · 2
43%
28%
29%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Omiya Ardija win 43%, draw 28%, Kataller Toyama win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Omiya Ardija 1.65, Kataller Toyama 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Omiya Ardija or draw 71%, Kataller Toyama or draw 57%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT:
RB Omiya Ardija's possession-based style will be tested by Kataller Toyama's unbeaten streak of six matches. The visitors have demonstrated consistency, finding the net in their last eight league outings. While Omiya holds an edge with 20 points to Toyama's 15, their performances don't necessarily translate to dominance. The expected goals tell a story of near parity, with Omiya at 1.65 and Toyama at 1.30 for this matchup.
Despite Omiya's slight edge in expected points and defensive metrics, Toyama’s ability to score consistently and their physical, balanced approach could neutralize Omiya’s possession play. The model's forecast of a 43% win probability for Omiya contrasts with Toyama’s unbeaten streak, suggesting a tightly contested battle where a draw is plausible.
In terms of goal expectations, both teams show a propensity to be involved in scoring affairs, with a 59% likelihood of both teams scoring. The model also projects a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, alongside mild weather conditions of 22.9°C with 3.3 mm of rain expected.
The sharpest angle lies in the total goals market. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer value on the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.45, where the model sees a 43% chance, presenting a 6% edge. Additionally, Betsafe’s under 3.5 at odds of 1.6 provides a 5% edge given the model’s 66% probability. These angles capitalize on the possibility of a lower-scoring encounter than the over/under market currently suggests.
In conclusion, expect a competitive clash, potentially ending in a 1-1 draw. While both sides have shown scoring capabilities, the value remains with the unders in a match that could very well be decided on narrow margins.
Omiya ArdijaForm DWDWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #6Points #2
Key players
- Hijiri KatoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Kaishin SekiguchiRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
- Mauricio Caprini PintoRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.22
Kataller ToyamaForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.28 · xT 0.19
- Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
- Sho FuseyaLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama
Predicted score matrix
Kataller Toyama →
Omiya Ardija →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–16.5%
0–24.4%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.3%
1–111.6%
1–27.3%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.3%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.9%
3–15.1%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,65–1,30
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.62EV+14%
Over 2,557%
@1.43
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Omiya Ardija or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Carlos Antônio de Souza Júnior to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Carlos Antônio de Souza Júnior to score27%
- Shosei Okamoto to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.566% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Omiya Ardija | X | 2 · Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.35 | 3.55 | 2.52 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 2.47 | EV+ 8% 3.93 | 2.53 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Kataller Toyama win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.95 to 2.53 (−14%).
1+17 %
46 %36 %
2.12 → 2.47
X+3 %
29 %19 %
3.82 → 3.93
2-14 %
40 %30 %
2.95 → 2.53
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Kataller Toyama are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- Kataller Toyama have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Omiya Ardija
Kataller Toyama
Omiya Ardija (21–11)
Kataller Toyama (16–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Omiya Ardija
Kataller Toyama
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Omiya Ardija
Kataller Toyama
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 15 |
| xPoints | 16.6 | 12.9 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 0.64 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.42 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 359 | 474 |
| Passes against per match | 218 | 299 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 34.3 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Other | Omiya Ardija | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Thomas William Glover (Omiya Ardija) | Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 18 |
| Save % | 69% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
- Jubilo Iwata – Oita Trinita21 October 2026
- Ventforet Kofu – Yokohama FC21 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Sagan Tosu21 October 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo21 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Fujieda MYFC21 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – FC Imabari21 October 2026
- Shonan Bellmare – Iwaki FC21 October 2026
- Tokushima Vortis – Vanraure Hachinohe21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama according to our model?
The model gives Omiya Ardija a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Omiya Ardija 43%, draw 28%, Kataller Toyama 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama?
The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Omiya Ardija and 1.30 for Kataller Toyama, 2.95 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Omiya Ardija or draw (1X) 71%, Kataller Toyama or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.