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    Tochigi CityTochigi CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFCLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Tochigi City (47%)

    Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC · J2 League

    1 · Tochigi City 47%X 25%28% Fujieda MYFC · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Tochigi City win 47%, draw 25%, Fujieda MYFC win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Tochigi City 1.64, Fujieda MYFC 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Tochigi City or draw 72%, Fujieda MYFC or draw 53%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Tochigi City – Fujieda MYFC

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Tochigi City's underlying numbers against Fujieda MYFC provide an intriguing subtext: Tochigi are likelier to find the net more often. Expected goals (xG) tell us Tochigi's attacking endeavours typically muster 1.3 per game compared to Fujieda's 0.88, hinting at a potential edge for the hosts in capitalizing on scoring opportunities.

    However, Fujieda MYFC have been the more efficient side in terms of points accrued, sitting four ahead of Tochigi. Their defensive framework also holds the upper hand, conceding only 1.0 xGA per match against Tochigi's more porous 1.6. This suggests a resilient Fujieda side capable of stifling Tochigi's offensive bursts, especially when combined with their cautious playing style.

    The model leans towards Tochigi with a 47% win probability, yet the most likely scorelines indicate a close affair: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%). These align with the expected goals, forecasting a narrow margin of victory or a stalemate. Tochigi's preference for counterattacks and crosses could be pivotal, especially against Fujieda's low defensive line and direct approach.

    The standout betting angle here is the under 3.5 goals market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.43, aligned with the model's 70% confidence, though this represents no edge (0%). Given the playing styles and defensive strengths on display, this total looks fairly priced rather than a value bet. It might not be the most thrilling spectacle, but in betting, finding value is the real excitement. Expect a tight match, likely under 3.5 goals, with Tochigi edging slightly ahead, perhaps 1-0 or a 1-1 draw.

    Tochigi CityTochigi City
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #20xT #4xP/match #16Points #18
    Key players
    • Matej JonjićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    • Kazuki NishiyaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.19
    • Yuta KoikeRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    Form DDDLD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #20xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
    • Yuto NagaoCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    • Yuri MoriCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Tochigi City – Fujieda MYFC

    Predicted score matrix

    Fujieda MYFC →
    Tochigi City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–16.7%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–010.1%
    1–112.0%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.5%
    2–19.5%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–15.2%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–13.1%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,64–1,12
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.12EV+2%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Tochigi City to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.56

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Tochigi City to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Atsushi Yoshida to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Atsushi Yoshida to score37%
    • Rei Shimano to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Tochigi City47% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • 1 · Tochigi City47% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
    • 1 · Tochigi City47% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tochigi CityX2 · Fujieda MYFC
    Betsafe
    EV+ 23%
    2.62    		3.402.38
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 22%
    2.60    		3.352.35
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 23%
    2.62    		3.402.38
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 20%
    2.57    		3.772.49

    Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Fujieda MYFC win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 3.13 to 2.49 (−20%).

    1+22 %
    46 %36 %

    2.10 → 2.57

    X+4 %
    31 %21 %

    3.62 → 3.77

    2-20 %
    39 %29 %

    3.13 → 2.49

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tochigi City
    Fujieda MYFC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tochigi City (17–18)
    Fujieda MYFC (13–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tochigi City
    Matej Jonjić: 278 passningar, xT 0.95JonjićHayato Teruyama: 248 passningar, xT 0.4TeruyamaKazuki Nishiya: 198 passningar, xT 0.52NishiyaPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 185 passningar, xT -0.01CostaRyo Okui: 158 passningar, xT 0.28OkuiJin-Hyeon Kim: 146 passningar, xT 0.44KimYoshiki Sato: 122 passningar, xT 0.2SatoYuta Koike: 114 passningar, xT 0.83KoikeToshiki Mori: 107 passningar, xT 0.09MoriAidan Simmons: 90 passningar, xT 0.22SimmonsYuki Okaniwa: 78 passningar, xT 0.13Okaniwa
    Fujieda MYFC
    Shota Suzuki: 116 passningar, xT 0.2SuzukiRyota Kajikawa: 111 passningar, xT 0.22KajikawaYuto Nagao: 98 passningar, xT 0.22NagaoYuri Mori: 93 passningar, xT 0.22MoriTakumi Kusumoto: 79 passningar, xT 0.14KusumotoShun Yoshida: 77 passningar, xT 0.12YoshidaTakuya Okamoto: 62 passningar, xT 0.34OkamotoRei Shimano: 56 passningar, xT 0.04ShimanoYusuke Kikui: 54 passningar, xT 0.3KikuiRiyo Kawamoto: 50 passningar, xT 0.15KawamotoYusei Kondo: 39 passningar, xT -0.03Kondo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tochigi City
    Matej Jonjić: 278 passningar, xT 0.95JonjićHayato Teruyama: 248 passningar, xT 0.4TeruyamaKazuki Nishiya: 198 passningar, xT 0.52NishiyaPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 185 passningar, xT -0.01CostaRyo Okui: 158 passningar, xT 0.28OkuiJin-Hyeon Kim: 146 passningar, xT 0.44KimYoshiki Sato: 122 passningar, xT 0.2SatoYuta Koike: 114 passningar, xT 0.83KoikeToshiki Mori: 107 passningar, xT 0.09MoriAidan Simmons: 90 passningar, xT 0.22SimmonsYuki Okaniwa: 78 passningar, xT 0.13Okaniwa
    Fujieda MYFC
    Shota Suzuki: 116 passningar, xT 0.2SuzukiRyota Kajikawa: 111 passningar, xT 0.22KajikawaYuto Nagao: 98 passningar, xT 0.22NagaoYuri Mori: 93 passningar, xT 0.22MoriTakumi Kusumoto: 79 passningar, xT 0.14KusumotoShun Yoshida: 77 passningar, xT 0.12YoshidaTakuya Okamoto: 62 passningar, xT 0.34OkamotoRei Shimano: 56 passningar, xT 0.04ShimanoYusuke Kikui: 54 passningar, xT 0.3KikuiRiyo Kawamoto: 50 passningar, xT 0.15KawamotoYusei Kondo: 39 passningar, xT -0.03Kondo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTochigi CityFujieda MYFC
    Points1014
    xPoints11.416.1
    xG per match1.30.88
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.090.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.22
    Playing styleTochigi CityFujieda MYFC
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.510.42
    xT per match10.63
    xTA per match1.11.1
    Won balls, offensive half1816
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.310.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.34
    Entries into the box per match1210
    Entries into the box against1314
    Pass completion %0.740.67
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.65
    Passes per match346249
    Passes against per match282327
    Switches of play per match31.523
    Long balls per match4133
    Set piecesTochigi CityFujieda MYFC
    xG from free kicks0.070.03
    Corners per match3.85.5
    Corners against per match6.16.2
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.49
    OtherTochigi CityFujieda MYFC
    Throw-in control0.730.74
    The goalkeepersJin-Hyeon Kim (Tochigi City)Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)
    Saves3943
    Save %71%81%
    xG prevented57%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Tochigi City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fujieda MYFC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC according to our model?

    The model gives Tochigi City a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tochigi City 47%, draw 25%, Fujieda MYFC 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC?

    The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Tochigi City and 1.12 for Fujieda MYFC, 2.76 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Tochigi City or draw (1X) 72%, Fujieda MYFC or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.