01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Iwaki FC or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J2 League15°10 km/h
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Iwaki FCCounter-attacks & crosses5–0
Ventforet KofuLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Iwaki FC (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ventforet Kofu @ 4.54 (+44 %)
Iwaki FC vs Ventforet Kofu · J2 League
1 · Iwaki FC 40%X 28%32% Ventforet Kofu · 2
40%
28%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Iwaki FC vs Ventforet Kofu (J2 League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Iwaki FC win 40%, draw 28%, Ventforet Kofu win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Iwaki FC 1.35, Ventforet Kofu 1.18. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Iwaki FC or draw 68%, Ventforet Kofu or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Ventforet Kofu holds a slight historical edge over Iwaki FC, remaining unbeaten in their four meetings since 2023, with two draws and two wins. However, with a limited sample size, head-to-head statistics should weigh less than the ongoing dynamics of form and expected goals. The current season paints a more nuanced picture: despite trailing Kofu by a point in the standings, Iwaki boasts a marginally better expected goals tally per match.
In the realm of xG, Iwaki averages 0.96 per match compared to Kofu’s 0.82. This suggests that the hosts create more meaningful chances, even if their conversion hasn't always matched their potential. In contrast, Kofu’s defensive setup shows resilience, conceding fewer expected goals per game at 1.2 compared to Iwaki’s 1.4. This defensive solidity might give the visitors an edge in a tight contest.
The model indicates a slight lean towards an Iwaki victory, offering them a 40% chance of winning compared to Kofu's 32%. However, the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, hinting at a closely contested affair. With both teams' playing styles—counter-attacking for Iwaki and direct for Kofu—there's a balance that might suppress an open game. The over 2.5 goals probability is pegged at 46%, nudging towards the under.
The sharpest betting angle lies in the perceived value on a Kofu win. With odds offered at 4.2 on Betsafe and Nordicbet and 4.1 on LeoVegas, and the model assigning a 32% probability, there's a significant edge here. This suggests that backing the visitors may offer the most enticing return, even as the model's overall lean favors Iwaki in this encounter.
Iwaki FCForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #13xP/match #18Points #19
Key players
- Taisei KatoFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
- Naoki KumataFxG 0.29 · xT 0.03
- Atsuki YamanakaLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
Ventforet KofuForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #20xGA #13xT #17xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Sho ArakiCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
- Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
- Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Final score
5 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Iwaki FC 40% · Draw 28% · Ventforet Kofu 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Ventforet KofuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,05fair 14,00+0 %
MissMatchresultat - Iwaki FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,81fair 10,74-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu
Predicted score matrix
Ventforet Kofu →
Iwaki FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–19.0%
0–25.5%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.1%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.6%
2–25.1%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.9%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,35–1,18
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.85
Over 2,546%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Iwaki FC or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Naoki Kumata to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Naoki Kumata to score29%
- Yuta Koide to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@4.54PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
- 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
- 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Iwaki FC | X | 2 · Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.75 | 3.40 | EV+ 33% 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.75 | 3.40 | EV+ 31% 4.15 |
| Nordicbet | 1.75 | 3.40 | EV+ 33% 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | EV+ 7% 3.75 | EV+ 44% 4.54 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 06:15
Odds movement
10 %
57 %52 %
1.75 → 1.75
X+4 %
28 %23 %
3.61 → 3.75
2+3 %
23 %18 %
4.41 → 4.54
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesIwaki FC 0Draw 2Ventforet Kofu 2
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Iwaki FC
Ventforet Kofu
Iwaki FC (9–14)
Ventforet Kofu (9–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Iwaki FC
Ventforet Kofu
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Iwaki FC
Ventforet Kofu
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Iwaki FC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.7 | 13 |
| xG per match | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Iwaki FC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 230 | 296 |
| Passes against per match | 245 | 417 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.8 | 22.6 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Iwaki FC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| Other | Iwaki FC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Masato Sasaki (Iwaki FC) | John Higashi (Ventforet Kofu) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 17 |
| Save % | 55% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Blaublitz Akita17 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare17 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis17 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Vanraure Hachinohe17 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata17 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija17 October 2026
- Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata17 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Yokohama FC17 October 2026
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Iwaki FC vs Ventforet Kofu according to our model?
The model gives Iwaki FC a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iwaki FC 40%, draw 28%, Ventforet Kofu 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Iwaki FC vs Ventforet Kofu?
The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Iwaki FC and 1.18 for Ventforet Kofu, 2.53 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Iwaki FC or draw (1X) 68%, Ventforet Kofu or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.