01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kataller Toyama to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
J2 League18°12 km/h
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Kataller ToyamaBalanced & physical1–1
Shonan BellmarePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Kataller Toyama (53%)
Kataller Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare · J2 League
1 · Kataller Toyama 53%X 25%22% Shonan Bellmare · 2
53%
25%
22%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kataller Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare (J2 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kataller Toyama win 53%, draw 25%, Shonan Bellmare win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Kataller Toyama 1.94, Shonan Bellmare 0.97. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Kataller Toyama or draw 78%, Shonan Bellmare or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of styles seems evident as Kataller Toyama, with their balance and physicality, prepare to take on Shonan Bellmare, a team that thrives on possession control. The numbers suggest a tight contest, but the home side holds a distinct advantage. The model gives Toyama a 53% chance to bag the win, notably stronger than Bellmare’s 22%. Despite both teams boasting five-match unbeaten runs in the league, Toyama's stronger xG and defensive solidity set the stage for a compelling home performance.
The expected goals tally paints a clear picture: Toyama are likely to find the net nearly twice (1.94 xG), while Bellmare’s expected return is just under one (0.97 xG). This disparity highlights the hosts’ attacking edge. Despite Shonan’s higher points total of 17 compared to Toyama’s 14, the expected points analysis gives a slight nod to the home side, emphasizing the deceptive nature of mere points tallies.
The most probable scorelines—1-1, 1-0, and 2-0—indicate a game that could either be a tight contest or a decisive victory for the hosts. However, with 56% favoring over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood for both teams to score, the numbers suggest an open match rather than a defensive stalemate. Nevertheless, the hosts’ superior defensive numbers (0.94 xGA vs. 1.2 xGA) may suppress Bellmare’s potential to capitalize on possession.
For bettors, the real value lies in backing Toyama at home. With odds of 1.92 at Betsafe and Nordicbet, there’s a 2% edge over the model’s 53% win probability. This makes them an enticing option for those seeking value in what shapes up to be a compelling clash.
Kataller ToyamaForm WWDWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #1xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.28 · xT 0.22
- Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
- Sota FukazawaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Shonan BellmareForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #10xP/match #17Points #4
Key players
- Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Yutaro HakamataCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kataller Toyama 53% · Draw 25% · Shonan Bellmare 22%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Kataller ToyamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,95fair 5,71-13 %
MissMatchresultat - Shonan BellmareBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,25fair 22,49-54 %
MissMatch prediction: Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare
Predicted score matrix
Shonan Bellmare →
Kataller Toyama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–15.0%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.2%
1–110.6%
1–25.0%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.6%
3–16.4%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.0%
4+–14.9%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,94–0,97
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.18
Over 2,556%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kataller Toyama to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Tae-won Kim to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Tae-won Kim to score31%
- Kazuki Dohana to be booked18%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kataller Toyama | X | 2 · Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.80 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.80 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.91 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Kataller Toyama win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 1.96 to 1.87 (−5%).
1-5 %
52 %47 %
1.96 → 1.87
X+3 %
28 %23 %
3.64 → 3.75
2+12 %
28 %23 %
3.49 → 3.91
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Kataller Toyama are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Shonan Bellmare are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kataller Toyama
Shonan Bellmare
Kataller Toyama (15–10)
Shonan Bellmare (11–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Shonan Bellmare
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Shonan Bellmare
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kataller Toyama | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 17 |
| xPoints | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Kataller Toyama | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 0.58 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 23 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 474 | 315 |
| Passes against per match | 296 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.9 | 21.3 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Kataller Toyama | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.6 |
| Other | Kataller Toyama | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama) | Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 41 |
| Save % | 58% | 84% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Blaublitz Akita17 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis17 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Vanraure Hachinohe17 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata17 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija17 October 2026
- Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata17 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Yokohama FC17 October 2026
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata17 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kataller Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?
The model gives Kataller Toyama a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kataller Toyama 53%, draw 25%, Shonan Bellmare 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kataller Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare?
The model expects 1.94 goals (xG) for Kataller Toyama and 0.97 for Shonan Bellmare, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kataller Toyama or draw (1X) 78%, Shonan Bellmare or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.