01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
J2 League22°15 km/h
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Tegevajaro MiyazakiPossession control1–1
Jubilo IwataPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (42%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.38 (+28 %)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Jubilo Iwata · J2 League
1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42%X 28%30% Jubilo Iwata · 2
42%
28%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Jubilo Iwata (J2 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 42%, draw 28%, Jubilo Iwata win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.55, Jubilo Iwata 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw 70%, Jubilo Iwata or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Tegevajaro Miyazaki enter this clash as the statistical favorites, boasting a 42% chance of victory against Jubilo Iwata's 30%, according to the model. Despite Miyazaki's unbeaten run in their last five league games, Jubilo Iwata's xPoints (15.5) slightly edge out Miyazaki's (15.2). This subtle tension between form and underlying metrics makes the encounter intriguing.
Miyazaki's strength lies in their ability to capitalize quickly after winning the ball, with an xG of 0.27 in such situations, significantly higher than Iwata's 0.13. Both teams favor a possession-based style, suggesting a tactical battle in the midfield. However, the visitors have shown a more robust defense on paper, conceding fewer expected goals per match (0.96) than the hosts (1.1).
The most probable scorelines include a 1-1 draw (12%), with 2-1 and 1-0 wins for Miyazaki each at 9%. The expected goals (xG) suggest a close game, with Miyazaki's 1.55 slightly outpacing Iwata's 1.28. The over 2.5 goals market is leaned towards at 54%, while both teams scoring stands at 57%, indicating a reasonable expectation of goals.
With Betsafe and Nordicbet offering odds of 2.62 for a Miyazaki win, there's a notable 9% value edge, making it a potentially smart play for those looking to back the home team. Additionally, the over 3.5 goals market presents a 7% edge at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe, appealing to those expecting an open game.
While Miyazaki seems favored statistically, the narrow margins in xPoints and Iwata's defensive edge call for caution. Still, the value lies with Miyazaki to continue their unbeaten streak, especially at the attractive odds available.
Tegevajaro MiyazakiForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #18xP/match #6Points #8
Key players
- Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Yota ShimokawaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
- Eisuke WatanabeCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Jubilo IwataForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #2xP/match #3Points #10
Key players
- Kota KuwabaraRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
- Daiki KanekoCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
- Ryusei YoshimuraLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42% · Draw 28% · Jubilo Iwata 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Tegevajaro MiyazakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,66fair 7,97+21 %
MissMatchresultat - Jubilo IwataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,58fair 11,64+8 %
MissMatch prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata
Predicted score matrix
Jubilo Iwata →
Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.2%
0–24.8%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.8%
1–112.1%
1–27.5%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.1%
2–25.8%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.7%
3–23.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,55–1,28
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@1.58
Over 2,554%
@2.38EV+21%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Kaiga Murakoshi to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Kaiga Murakoshi to score29%
- Kensuke Fujiwara to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.554% probability@2.38PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
- Over 3.531% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- Over 3.531% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki | X | 2 · Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 2.95 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 2.95 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 2.46 | 3.06 | 3.12 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.58 (−11%).
1-8 %
46 %26 %
2.67 → 2.46
X-10 %
39 %19 %
3.40 → 3.06
2+25 %
44 %24 %
2.49 → 3.12
Over 2,5+18 %
55 %35 %
2.01 → 2.38
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Jubilo Iwata
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (14–14)
Jubilo Iwata (12–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Jubilo Iwata
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Jubilo Iwata
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 13 |
| xPoints | 15.2 | 15.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.96 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 302 | 353 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 274 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.8 | 28.9 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Other | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki) | Ayumi Niekawa (Jubilo Iwata) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 21 |
| Save % | 70% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Blaublitz Akita17 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare17 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis17 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Vanraure Hachinohe17 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata17 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija17 October 2026
- Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata17 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Yokohama FC17 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Jubilo Iwata according to our model?
The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42%, draw 28%, Jubilo Iwata 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Jubilo Iwata?
The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.28 for Jubilo Iwata, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X) 70%, Jubilo Iwata or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.