01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fujieda MYFC or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
J2 League20°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
Fujieda MYFCLow block & direct0–0
Montedio YamagataBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Fujieda MYFC (39%)
Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata · J2 League
1 · Fujieda MYFC 39%X 28%33% Montedio Yamagata · 2
39%
28%
33%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata (J2 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Fujieda MYFC win 39%, draw 28%, Montedio Yamagata win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Fujieda MYFC 1.31, Montedio Yamagata 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Fujieda MYFC or draw 67%, Montedio Yamagata or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Fujieda MYFC finds itself in a position of slight market underestimation against Montedio Yamagata. Despite the visitors' historical dominance in this fixture, winning four of the last six encounters, the model gives the hosts a 39% chance of victory, compared to the 33% for Yamagata. The small head-to-head sample doesn't weigh heavily against the current form, which slightly favors Fujieda, even though expected goals favor Yamagata.
The expected goals numbers paint an intriguing picture. Fujieda's xG per match stands at 0.85, lower than Yamagata's 1.2, suggesting that the visitors create more opportunities on average. However, defensively, Fujieda holds the upper hand with an xGA of 1.0 compared to Yamagata's 1.3. This balance between offensive potential and defensive resilience could tilt the match in the hosts' favor, especially given their edge in both points and xPoints this season.
The most likely scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—indicate a closely contested affair. With only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match is more likely to be tight, possibly decided by a single moment of quality or a defensive lapse. Fujieda's direct style may counteract Yamagata's balanced, physical play, potentially leading to a tense, low-scoring game.
Given these dynamics, the betting market offers an intriguing opportunity. The model's lean towards Fujieda is reflected in the probabilities, with the hosts favored at 39% compared to Yamagata's 33%. This represents value, considering the slight edge in form and model probabilities favoring the hosts.
In essence, while historical data might suggest a Yamagata advantage, the current form and statistical indicators point towards a narrow Fujieda victory, likely 1-0. For bettors seeking an edge, this match presents an opportunity to back the model's favorite with a justified rationale.
Fujieda MYFCForm LDDDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #20xP/match #9Points #12
Key players
- Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Yuto NagaoCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
- Yuri MoriCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Montedio YamagataForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #8xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Ryotaro NakamuraCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Hayate SugiiLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
- Ayumu KawaiRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fujieda MYFC 39% · Draw 28% · Montedio Yamagata 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Fujieda MYFCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,35fair 11,34-26 %
MissMatchresultat - Montedio YamagataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,13fair 13,55-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata
Predicted score matrix
Montedio Yamagata →
Fujieda MYFC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–19.4%
0–25.8%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–010.3%
1–113.1%
1–27.7%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.0%
2–18.4%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,31–1,20
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.84
Over 2,546%
@1.99
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fujieda MYFC or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Hayato Manabe to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Hayato Manabe to score25%
- Uheiji Uehata to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Fujieda MYFC39% probability@2.67PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fujieda MYFC | X | 2 · Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.60 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.68 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18
Odds movement
1+6 %
39 %34 %
2.52 → 2.67
X+4 %
32 %27 %
3.16 → 3.28
2-1 %
37 %32 %
2.72 → 2.68
Over 2,5+2 %
51 %46 %
1.94 → 1.99
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesFujieda MYFC 2Draw 0Montedio Yamagata 4
Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Montedio Yamagata dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fujieda MYFC
Montedio Yamagata
Fujieda MYFC (13–11)
Montedio Yamagata (11–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fujieda MYFC
Montedio Yamagata
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fujieda MYFC
Montedio Yamagata
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fujieda MYFC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPoints | 14.5 | 12.6 |
| xG per match | 0.85 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Fujieda MYFC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 236 | 403 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 358 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Fujieda MYFC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Other | Fujieda MYFC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC) | Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 39 | 33 |
| Save % | 80% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Blaublitz Akita17 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare17 October 2026
- Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis17 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Vanraure Hachinohe17 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata17 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija17 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Yokohama FC17 October 2026
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata17 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata according to our model?
The model gives Fujieda MYFC a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fujieda MYFC 39%, draw 28%, Montedio Yamagata 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model expects 1.31 goals (xG) for Fujieda MYFC and 1.20 for Montedio Yamagata, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fujieda MYFC or draw (1X) 67%, Montedio Yamagata or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.