01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vegalta Sendai to win64%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
J2 League16°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Vegalta SendaiLow block & direct0–0
Tokushima VortisPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Vegalta Sendai (64%)
Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis · J2 League
1 · Vegalta Sendai 64%X 24%13% Tokushima Vortis · 2
64%
24%
13%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis (J2 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Vegalta Sendai win 64%, draw 24%, Tokushima Vortis win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Vegalta Sendai 1.90, Tokushima Vortis 0.73. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: Vegalta Sendai or draw 87%, Tokushima Vortis or draw 36%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Vegalta Sendai's recent run is impossible to ignore. Riding high on four straight victories, they've found the net in their last eight league outings. Their clinical, direct playing style has proven effective, allowing them to capitalize on scoring opportunities with minimal defensive risk. This approach should serve them well against Tokushima Vortis, a team that prefers to control possession but often struggles to convert it into tangible results.
Despite Tokushima's historical dominance in this fixture, the head-to-head data is less significant here, given it's based on just six recent encounters. Instead, current form and expected goals highlight the hosts' superiority. Sendai's xG of 1.5 per match far outweighs Vortis' 0.83, and defensively, the gap widens further: Sendai concedes just 0.65 xGA per game compared to Vortis' 1.4. This disparity underscores Sendai's 64% model-win probability and suggests their streak is set to continue.
Tokushima Vortis, although consistent in finding the back of the net in their last eight matches, face a daunting challenge. Their preference for possession may be stifled by Sendai's ability to bypass midfield with direct play. The visitors' struggle to convert control into goals, combined with their shaky defense, points to a long evening for them.
Expect a tight contest, likely leaning towards a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for Sendai, as both sides keep it relatively low-scoring. The over-2.5 goals projection is delicately balanced at 49%, suggesting a cautious approach to the over/under market.
For bettors seeking value, Sendai to win at odds of 1.58 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet offers a slight edge, given the model's 64% probability. This assessment reflects Sendai's superior form and the tactical mismatch Vortis face, despite their historical edge in this fixture.
Vegalta SendaiForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #9xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.41 · xT 0.04
- Shion InoueCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Hidetoshi TakedaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Tokushima VortisForm LWWLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #17xT #16xP/match #20Points #9
Key players
- Ken IwaoCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Daiki WatariFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
- Kohei YamakoshiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Vegalta Sendai 64% · Draw 24% · Tokushima Vortis 13%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Vegalta SendaiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,62fair 6,83-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Tokushima VortisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,82fair 44,98-58 %
MissMatch prediction: Vegalta Sendai – Tokushima Vortis
Predicted score matrix
Tokushima Vortis →
Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–15.0%
0–21.9%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–013.4%
1–110.3%
1–23.7%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–013.0%
2–19.5%
2–23.5%
2–30.8%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.2%
3–16.0%
3–22.2%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–06.0%
4+–14.4%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.2-013%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,90–0,73
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.87
Over 2,549%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vegalta Sendai to win64%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Hiroto Iwabuchi to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Hiroto Iwabuchi to score22%
- Nao Yamada to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Vegalta Sendai64% probability@1.65PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Vegalta Sendai64% probability@1.60LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Vegalta Sendai64% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vegalta Sendai | X | 2 · Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 1.58 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.60 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 1.58 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 1.65 | 4.03 | 4.82 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Tokushima Vortis win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 5.98 to 4.82 (−19%).
1+12 %
65 %55 %
1.48 → 1.65
X-1 %
28 %18 %
4.07 → 4.03
2-19 %
22 %12 %
5.98 → 4.82
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %44 %
1.88 → 1.95
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesVegalta Sendai 0Draw 3Tokushima Vortis 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Tokushima Vortis dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
- Vegalta Sendai come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Vegalta Sendai have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Tokushima Vortis have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vegalta Sendai
Tokushima Vortis
Vegalta Sendai (18–8)
Tokushima Vortis (10–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vegalta Sendai
Tokushima Vortis
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vegalta Sendai
Tokushima Vortis
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vegalta Sendai | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 13 |
| xPoints | 20.3 | 9.4 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.83 |
| xGA per match | 0.65 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Vegalta Sendai | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.65 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 14 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 251 | 376 |
| Passes against per match | 339 | 351 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 31.4 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 43 |
| Set pieces | Vegalta Sendai | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Other | Vegalta Sendai | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Akihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai) | Kai Chidi Kitamura (Tokushima Vortis) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 32 |
| Save % | 58% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Blaublitz Akita17 October 2026
- Kataller Toyama – Shonan Bellmare17 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Vanraure Hachinohe17 October 2026
- Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata17 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Omiya Ardija17 October 2026
- Fujieda MYFC – Montedio Yamagata17 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Yokohama FC17 October 2026
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata17 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Ventforet Kofu18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis according to our model?
The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vegalta Sendai 64%, draw 24%, Tokushima Vortis 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Vegalta Sendai vs Tokushima Vortis?
The model expects 1.90 goals (xG) for Vegalta Sendai and 0.73 for Tokushima Vortis, 2.63 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Vegalta Sendai or draw (1X) 87%, Tokushima Vortis or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.