Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

J2 League17 October 202621°15 km/h

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Oita TrinitaBalanced & physical

5–1

Albirex NiigataLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Oita Trinita (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Albirex Niigata @ 3.23 (+6 %)

1 · Oita Trinita 39%X 29%33% Albirex Niigata · 2

39%

29%

33%

Prediction summary

Final score 5–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata (J2 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Oita Trinita win 39%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Oita Trinita 1.22, Albirex Niigata 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Oita Trinita or draw 67%, Albirex Niigata or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata

Marcus Johansson · 16 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Oita Trinita's balanced and physical approach has been a cornerstone of their recent six-match unbeaten streak in the J2 League, giving them a slight edge in the betting models with a 39% chance of securing a victory against Albirex Niigata. Despite the visitors' five-match unbeaten run and a slight points advantage in the standings, the models and expected goals suggest a tight battle at the Oita Bank Dome.

The expected goals figures are telling: Oita, with 1.22 xG against Niigata’s 1.12, hints at the home side's marginally stronger attacking potential in this matchup. Both sides demonstrate similar profiles in terms of their season-long xG and xGA, with Oita's more robust defense (1.0 xGA compared to Niigata's 1.2) likely playing a critical role in maintaining their unbeaten run. Niigata, however, brings a direct style to the field, which could test the resilience of Oita's defensive setup, especially in transitions.

In terms of predicting the match outcome, the most likely scorelines of 1-1 at 14%, followed by 1-0 for Oita at 11%, underscore the possibility of a closely contested affair. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits at 42%, suggesting a lean towards a lower-scoring match, with just a 48% chance for both teams to find the back of the net. Given the tactical setups and current form, a cautious approach seems justified.

Albirex's direct play can exploit any rare lapses from the hosts, yet the weather is not a factor to disrupt their attacking rhythm, neither suppressing nor enhancing goal potential. The model's slight lean towards Oita Trinita, with a predicted tight match leading to a 1-0 win, aligns with the betting market's view.

Oita Trinita

Form DDDWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #14xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Matheus PereiraCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Yuto MisaoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Ayuki MiyakawaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20

Albirex Niigata

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #15xP/match #7Points #5

Key players

Matheus Purcelo Blecha de MorasRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.05
Michael James FitzgeraldCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Masahiro SekiguchiRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22

Final score

5 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Oita Trinita 39% · Draw 29% · Albirex Niigata 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Albirex NiigataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,14fair 15,90-24 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Oita TrinitaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,13fair 13,41-32 %

Hit

Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata

Predicted score matrix

Albirex Niigata →

Oita Trinita →

0–010.0%

0–110.4%

0–26.0%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.3%

1–113.5%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.2%

2–18.1%

2–24.5%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.9%

3–13.3%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,22–1,12

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.67

Over 2,542%

@2.22

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oita Trinita or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Kotaro Arima to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Matheus Purcelo Blecha de Moras to score20%
Matheus Sousa Pereira to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Albirex Niigata33% probability@3.23PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oita Trinita	X	2 · Albirex Niigata
Betsafe	2.28	3.05	2.95
LeoVegas	2.30	3.10	2.90
Nordicbet	2.28	3.05	2.95
Pinnacle	2.32	3.19	EV+ 6% 3.23

Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Oita Trinita win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 2.74 to 2.32 (−15%).

1-15 %

43 %33 %

2.74 → 2.32

X+2 %

35 %25 %

3.12 → 3.19

2+24 %

38 %28 %

2.61 → 3.23

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Oita Trinita are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Albirex Niigata are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oita Trinita

Albirex Niigata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oita Trinita (11–8)

Albirex Niigata (11–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Albirex Niigata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Albirex Niigata

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata
Points	14	17
xPoints	13.5	13.6
xG per match	0.9	1
xGA per match	1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.13

Playing style	Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.43	0.4
xT per match	0.8	0.79
xTA per match	0.85	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	20	16
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.72	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.64
Passes per match	324	273
Passes against per match	378	358
Switches of play per match	23.6	21.2
Long balls per match	32	28

Set pieces	Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	3.8	3.4
Corners against per match	5.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.21	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.57

Other	Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata
Throw-in control	0.77	0.71

The goalkeepers	Kyung Gun Mun (Oita Trinita)	Noam Baumann (Albirex Niigata)
Saves	31	27
Save %	80%	69%
xG prevented	64%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oita Trinita

Fixtures, form & tips

Albirex Niigata

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata according to our model?

The model gives Oita Trinita a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 39%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata?

The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Oita Trinita and 1.12 for Albirex Niigata, 2.35 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Oita Trinita or draw (1X) 67%, Albirex Niigata or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.