Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita Prediction: Home win 47% (21 Oct 2026)

J2 League21 October 202625°16 km/h

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Tegevajaro MiyazakiPossession control

Blaublitz AkitaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Blaublitz Akita @ 4.83 (+24 %)

1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 47%X 28%26% Blaublitz Akita · 2

47%

28%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita (J2 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 47%, draw 28%, Blaublitz Akita win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.47, Blaublitz Akita 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw 74%, Blaublitz Akita or draw 53%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.

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Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Blaublitz Akita

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Tegevajaro Miyazaki's possession control stands out as the key factor heading into this matchup against Blaublitz Akita. The hosts' possession game contrasts sharply with Akita's defensive and direct style, which is likely to shape the game into a tense tactical battle. While Tegevajaro holds a slight advantage in the model with a 47% chance of victory, their unbeaten run in the last six league matches further solidifies their edge, making them the more reliable pick for this encounter.

The expected goals model suggests a relatively balanced affair, with Tegevajaro expected to net 1.47 and Akita 1.17. The 1-1 draw at 13% is the most probable outcome, followed by a 1-0 win for the hosts at 10%. With both teams projected to score at 53%, the game leans slightly towards goals being exchanged, yet the overall expected attack from both sides doesn't scream high-scoring. Tegevajaro's tactical approach should allow them to control the tempo, potentially squeezing Akita's low defensive block into submission.

Over 2.5 goals appears at 49%, indicating a knife's edge between a low-scoring and a slightly more open game. Tegevajaro has a slight edge in expected goals and points, suggesting that a narrow victory is within reach. However, the small sample size of recent head-to-head encounters suggests that form and expected goals should weigh more in predicting the outcome here.

For those inclined towards exploiting betting value, Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer odds of 2.25 for over 2.5 goals, providing a 10% edge according to the model's assessment. Additionally, Betsafe's odds of 4.05 for over 3.5 goals also present a 10% edge, offering value for more aggressive punters willing to bet on a more open game than initially expected.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Form WWDDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #16xP/match #2Points #11

Key players

Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
Yota ShimokawaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
Eisuke WatanabeCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

Blaublitz Akita

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #14xP/match #3Points #14

Key players

Ryuhei OishiRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.31
Kazuma NagaiLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
Masakazu YoshiokaRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Blaublitz Akita

Predicted score matrix

Blaublitz Akita →

Tegevajaro Miyazaki →

0–07.5%

0–18.0%

0–24.9%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.1%

1–112.6%

1–27.2%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.0%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.8%

3–14.4%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,47–1,17

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.65

Over 2,549%

@2.25EV+8%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win47%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win47%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Keigo Hashimoto to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Keigo Hashimoto to score26%
Hiroto Morooka to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Blaublitz Akita26% probability@4.83PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
2 · Blaublitz Akita26% probability@4.50BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Blaublitz Akita26% probability@4.50NordicbetEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki	X	2 · Blaublitz Akita
BetMGM UK	2.02	3.20	3.55
Betsafe	1.72	3.30	EV+ 15% 4.50
LeoVegas	1.75	3.25	EV+ 14% 4.45
Nordicbet	1.72	3.30	EV+ 15% 4.50
Pinnacle	1.80	3.40	EV+ 24% 4.83

Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Tegevajaro Miyazaki win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.07 to 1.80 (−13%).

1-13 %

55 %45 %

2.07 → 1.80

X+8 %

33 %23 %

3.15 → 3.40

2+31 %

27 %17 %

3.70 → 4.83

Over 2,5-2 %

47 %37 %

2.30 → 2.25

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Tegevajaro Miyazaki are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Blaublitz Akita

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tegevajaro Miyazaki (15–15)

Blaublitz Akita (12–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Blaublitz Akita

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Blaublitz Akita

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Blaublitz Akita
Points	14	13
xPoints	17.3	17.2
xG per match	1.2	0.92
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.22

Playing style	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Blaublitz Akita
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.35
Field tilt	0.45	0.33
xT per match	0.81	0.86
xTA per match	0.88	1
Won balls, offensive half	22	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.49
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.49
Passes per match	308	141
Passes against per match	338	365
Switches of play per match	32.5	10.7
Long balls per match	45	27

Set pieces	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Blaublitz Akita
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.17
Corners per match	3.9	4.5
Corners against per match	4.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.58

Other	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Blaublitz Akita
Throw-in control	0.79	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki)	Genki Yamada (Blaublitz Akita)
Saves	14	27
Save %	70%	69%
xG prevented	39%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Fixtures, form & tips

Blaublitz Akita

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita according to our model?

The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 47%, draw 28%, Blaublitz Akita 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita?

The model expects 1.47 goals (xG) for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.17 for Blaublitz Akita, 2.64 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X) 74%, Blaublitz Akita or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.