01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J2 League15°20 km/h
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Shonan BellmarePossession controlvs
Sagan TosuPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Shonan Bellmare (38%)Soft draw
Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu · J2 League
1 · Shonan Bellmare 38%X 25%37% Sagan Tosu · 2
38%
25%
37%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Shonan Bellmare win 38%, draw 25%, Sagan Tosu win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Shonan Bellmare 1.21, Sagan Tosu 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Shonan Bellmare or draw 63%, Sagan Tosu or draw 62%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.
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Analysis: Shonan Bellmare – Sagan Tosu
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Sagan Tosu's stronger expected goals metrics (1.4 xG per match) suggest they might have the upper hand in this matchup against Shonan Bellmare, despite the latter's unbeaten streak over the last seven league matches. Bellmare has been efficient in front of goal, scoring in nine consecutive games, but their defense is more porous with an xGA of 1.4 compared to Tosu's solid 0.82. The visitors' high press might test Bellmare's possession-based playstyle, possibly leading to turnovers and chances.
The statistical probabilities are razor-thin, with Bellmare at a 38% chance of winning, slightly edging out Tosu at 37%. The draw sits at 25%, and the most likely scorelines are all narrow: 1-1 (13%), followed by 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). These numbers suggest a close affair with limited scoring opportunities, aligning with the model's 46% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to find the net.
For the betting angle, the value lies with the draw offered at attractive odds of 3.50 with Bet365. While Bellmare holds a points advantage, Tosu's superior expected metrics and pressing style could negate that. A 1-1 draw fits the calculus, underpinning the cautious approach that favors defensive solidity over reckless adventure.
Shonan BellmareForm WDDDD
League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #12xP/match #18Points #6
Key players
- Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Yutaro HakamataCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Sagan TosuForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #13
Key players
- Sora OgawaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
- Ayumu ToyodaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
- Kaito AbeCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Shonan Bellmare – Sagan Tosu
Predicted score matrix
Sagan Tosu →
Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–110.1%
0–26.9%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.4%
1–113.1%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–05.9%
2–17.7%
2–25.1%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.1%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.0-08%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,21–1,31
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
–
Over 2,546%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X)62%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Hiroto Yamada to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Hiroto Yamada to score25%
- Kakeru Yamauchi to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Shonan Bellmare are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Shonan Bellmare have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare (13–11)
Sagan Tosu (12–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 14 |
| xPoints | 12.3 | 18.8 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.65 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 308 | 422 |
| Passes against per match | 285 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.1 | 25.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Other | Shonan Bellmare | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare) | Ryota Izumori (Sagan Tosu) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 55 | 22 |
| Save % | 85% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu according to our model?
The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shonan Bellmare 38%, draw 25%, Sagan Tosu 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?
The model expects 1.21 goals (xG) for Shonan Bellmare and 1.31 for Sagan Tosu, 2.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X) 63%, Sagan Tosu or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.