Liga MX19°0,3 mm12 km/h

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    Cruz AzulCruz AzulPossession & high press
    vs
    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo TolucaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (47%)

    Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca · Liga MX

    1 · Cruz Azul 47%X 28%25% Deportivo Toluca · 2

    Analysis: Cruz Azul – Deportivo Toluca

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Cruz Azul's 66% home win rate over 47 matches underscores their stronghold at home, yet recent form and expected goals complicate the picture. Despite a model lean toward a home victory at 47%, Toluca's edge in xPoints (13.4 vs 12.0) and xGA (0.88 vs 1.3) suggests a more formidable challenge than the odds imply. The visitors' four-match winning streak further intensifies this clash, countering Cruz Azul's own run of three consecutive wins.

    Both teams thrive on possession, with the hosts favoring a high press that might be blunted by expected rainfall, reducing the likelihood of a goal-filled contest. The model's predicted scorelines, including a 1-1 draw at 12% probability, align with the expected goals (Cruz Azul 1.50, Toluca 1.26), suggesting a tight match. The over 2.5 goals line sits narrowly at 52%, reflecting the uncertainty brought by the wet conditions, which tend to suppress scoring.

    From a betting perspective, the value emerges in the draw at 28%, particularly given the head-to-head record since 2023: a small sample but notable with Cruz Azul undefeated across four encounters. For those seeking a calculated risk, the draw appears a plausible outcome in a match where both sides' current form and the elements promise a tactical battle.

    Cruz AzulCruz Azul
    Form LLWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #9xT #2xP/match #6Points #4
    Key players
    • Nicolás Alejandro IbáñezFxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
    • Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.36
    • Carlos RotondiLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo Toluca
    Form DWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #10xP/match #3Points #1
    Key players
    • Federico Sebastián Viñas BarbozaFxG 0.72 · xT -0.01
    • Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.14
    • Santiago SimónRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Cruz Azul – Deportivo Toluca

    Predicted score matrix

    Deportivo Toluca →
    Cruz Azul →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–17.7%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.6%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.1%
    2–19.0%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,50–1,26
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.22EV+6%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Cruz Azul to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Cruz Azul to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • José Antonio Paradela to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • José Antonio Paradela to score30%
    • Franco Agustín Romero to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Cruz Azul47% probability@2.72PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
    • 1 · Cruz Azul47% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
    • 1 · Cruz Azul47% probability@2.65BetssonEV+24%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Cruz AzulX2 · Deportivo Toluca
    Betsafe
    EV+ 24%
    2.65    		3.302.52
    Betsson
    EV+ 24%
    2.65    		3.302.52
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 24%
    2.65    		3.302.52
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 27%
    2.72    		3.242.65

    Odds updated 21 Sept, 13:35

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Cruz Azul 1Draw 3Deportivo Toluca 0
    Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • CD Cruz Azul come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Deportivo Toluca come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • CD Cruz Azul win 66% of their home matches all-time (47 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cruz Azul
    Deportivo Toluca
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Cruz Azul (16–14)
    Deportivo Toluca (18–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cruz Azul
    Jesus Orozco Chiquete: 214 passningar, xT 0.68ChiqueteWiller Ditta: 205 passningar, xT 0.46DittaJeremy Marquez: 181 passningar, xT 0.05MarquezAgustin Palavecino: 176 passningar, xT 0.62PalavecinoCarlos Rodriguez: 176 passningar, xT 1.23RodriguezKevin Mier: 146 passningar, xT 0.06MierOmar Campos: 131 passningar, xT 0.52CamposJose Paradela: 119 passningar, xT 0.65ParadelaErik Lira: 113 passningar, xT 0.15LiraAmaury Garcia: 105 passningar, xT 0.08GarciaLuka Romero: 88 passningar, xT 0.29Romero
    Deportivo Toluca
    Federico Pereira: 255 passningar, xT 0.33PereiraBruno Mendez: 178 passningar, xT 0.23MendezFranco Romero: 175 passningar, xT 0.05RomeroEverardo Del Villar: 164 passningar, xT 0.15VillarHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 122 passningar, xT 0.19CastroNicolás Federico Castro: 119 passningar, xT 0.49CastroDiego Barbosa: 105 passningar, xT 0.51BarbosaLuan: 105 passningar, xT 0.19LuanVictor Guzman: 104 passningar, xT 0.05GuzmanJesus Gallardo: 92 passningar, xT 0.52GallardoJesus Angulo: 87 passningar, xT 0.33Angulo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cruz Azul
    Jesus Orozco Chiquete: 214 passningar, xT 0.68ChiqueteWiller Ditta: 205 passningar, xT 0.46DittaJeremy Marquez: 181 passningar, xT 0.05MarquezAgustin Palavecino: 176 passningar, xT 0.62PalavecinoCarlos Rodriguez: 176 passningar, xT 1.23RodriguezKevin Mier: 146 passningar, xT 0.06MierOmar Campos: 131 passningar, xT 0.52CamposJose Paradela: 119 passningar, xT 0.65ParadelaErik Lira: 113 passningar, xT 0.15LiraAmaury Garcia: 105 passningar, xT 0.08GarciaLuka Romero: 88 passningar, xT 0.29Romero
    Deportivo Toluca
    Federico Pereira: 255 passningar, xT 0.33PereiraBruno Mendez: 178 passningar, xT 0.23MendezFranco Romero: 175 passningar, xT 0.05RomeroEverardo Del Villar: 164 passningar, xT 0.15VillarHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 122 passningar, xT 0.19CastroNicolás Federico Castro: 119 passningar, xT 0.49CastroDiego Barbosa: 105 passningar, xT 0.51BarbosaLuan: 105 passningar, xT 0.19LuanVictor Guzman: 104 passningar, xT 0.05GuzmanJesus Gallardo: 92 passningar, xT 0.52GallardoJesus Angulo: 87 passningar, xT 0.33Angulo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCruz AzulDeportivo Toluca
    Points1519
    xPoints1213.4
    xG per match1.81.9
    xGA per match1.30.88
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.370.15
    Playing styleCruz AzulDeportivo Toluca
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.630.63
    xT per match1.41
    xTA per match0.970.81
    Won balls, offensive half2928
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.280.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.25
    Entries into the box per match1616
    Entries into the box against1011
    Pass completion %0.780.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.76
    Passes per match407495
    Passes against per match300283
    Switches of play per match39.136.9
    Long balls per match4245
    Set piecesCruz AzulDeportivo Toluca
    xG from free kicks0.010.05
    Corners per match6.76
    Corners against per match5.25.6
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.58
    OtherCruz AzulDeportivo Toluca
    Throw-in control0.760.69
    The goalkeepersKevin Mier (Cruz Azul)Luis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca)
    Saves2310
    Save %68%91%
    xG prevented44%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cruz Azul
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Deportivo Toluca
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca according to our model?

    The model gives Cruz Azul a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 47%, draw 28%, Deportivo Toluca 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.