Pumas UNAM vs Atlético San Luis: Prediction & Odds (27 Sept 2026)

Liga MX27 September 2026Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City21°23 km/h

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Pumas UNAMPossession control

Atlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Pumas UNAM (54%)

1 · Pumas UNAM 54%X 26%20% Atlético San Luis · 2

54%

26%

20%

Analysis: Pumas UNAM – Atlético San Luis

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Three wins out of four for Pumas UNAM against Atlético San Luis since 2023 sets a clear tone for this matchup. But a small sample size means we should tread lightly when weighing these head-to-head results against the current form and underlying metrics. The models favor the hosts.

Pumas currently not only lead in points but also boast better xPoints and xGA figures. With 11 points to San Luis' 6, the hosts appear formidable on paper. They average 1.8 expected goals per match, a substantive edge over San Luis' 1.05. This metric is telling, reflecting Pumas' ability to consistently create higher-quality chances, which aligns with their edge in xGA and xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball.

The model highlights a narrow range of likely outcomes: 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, each hovering around 10-11% probability. There's a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams find the net. With neither side particularly strong defensively, and given Pumas' higher attacking xG, a 2-1 home win seems the most plausible outcome, albeit with the distinct possibility of being a cagey affair given San Luis' reliance on counter-attacks.

While the possibility of a draw exists, the hosts' superior form and tactical advantage provide enough of a cushion to lean into this home win scenario.

Pumas UNAM

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #9xP/match #13Points #10

Key players

Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Olávio Vieira dos Santos JúniorLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.03
Robert MoralesFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04

Atlético San Luis

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #13xP/match #14Points #16

Key players

Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
David RodriguezRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Pumas UNAM – Atlético San Luis

Predicted score matrix

Atlético San Luis →

Pumas UNAM →

0–06.1%

0–15.7%

0–23.2%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.1%

1–111.2%

1–25.7%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.6%

3–15.9%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.8%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,80–1,05

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.11

Over 2,554%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pumas UNAM to win54%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pumas UNAM to win54%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Francisco Sebastián Córdova Reyes to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Francisco Sebastián Córdova Reyes to score26%
Johan Caicedo Caicedo to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Pumas UNAM54% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
1 · Pumas UNAM54% probability@1.92BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
1 · Pumas UNAM54% probability@1.92BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pumas UNAM	X	2 · Atlético San Luis
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 1.92	3.60	3.55
Betsson	EV+ 4% 1.92	3.60	3.55
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 1.92	3.60	3.55
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 1.97	3.65	3.65

Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:35

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Pumas UNAM 3Draw 0Atlético San Luis 1

Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pumas UNAM

Atlético San Luis

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pumas UNAM (11–12)

Atlético San Luis (8–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pumas UNAM

Atlético San Luis

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pumas UNAM

Atlético San Luis

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pumas UNAM	Atlético San Luis
Points	11	6
xPoints	10	9.3
xG per match	1	1
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.2

Playing style	Pumas UNAM	Atlético San Luis
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.27
Field tilt	0.39	0.47
xT per match	1.1	0.95
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	356	429
Passes against per match	411	376
Switches of play per match	29.7	23.3
Long balls per match	33	23

Set pieces	Pumas UNAM	Atlético San Luis
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	5.3	3
Corners against per match	3.9	6.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.44

Other	Pumas UNAM	Atlético San Luis
Throw-in control	0.69	0.69

The goalkeepers	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)	Andres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis)
Saves	20	21
Save %	63%	66%
xG prevented	41%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pumas UNAM

Fixtures, form & tips

Atlético San Luis

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pumas UNAM vs Atlético San Luis according to our model?

The model gives Pumas UNAM a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pumas UNAM 54%, draw 26%, Atlético San Luis 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.