Tigres UANL vs Puebla: Prediction & Odds (27 Sept 2026)

Liga MX27 September 2026 03:00 CESTEstadio Universitario, Monterrey23°0,3 mm17 km/h

Läs på svenska

Tigres UANLPossession & high press

PueblaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Tigres UANL (68%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+5 %)

1 · Tigres UANL 68%X 18%13% Puebla · 2

68%

18%

13%

Analysis: Tigres UANL – Puebla

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Tigres UANL are primed for victory, with a 68% model probability suggesting dominance over Club Puebla. The hosts boast a strong home win rate of 64%, further bolstered by expected goals favoring them at 1.91 compared to Puebla's 0.85. Despite Tigres' slightly shaky form against the visitors, with a small head-to-head sample of four matches yielding a balanced 2W 1D 1L, their possession-heavy, high-press approach is likely to crack Puebla's low defensive line.

Puebla, although leading in points and xPoints this season, find themselves on the back foot when it comes to expected goals per match. Tigres’ 1.4 xG per game slightly edges past Puebla’s 1.1, highlighting the hosts' offensive potential. Conversely, Tigres' defense, conceding 1.4 xGA per match, shows vulnerability, yet Puebla's 1.2 xGA suggests a marginally more resilient backline.

Given the models' leanings and probable scorelines, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Tigres seems plausible. The over 2.5 goals probability at 52% indicates a tight balance, with both teams to score hovering at 49%. Tigres' possession and pressing style may well suffocate Puebla’s direct approach, limiting their scoring opportunities.

While Tigres’ on-paper superiority is clear, the model accounts for both form and statistical nuances. The clash between styles could keep the scoring modest, but Tigres’ historical home strength and expected goal output make them firm favorites. A final scoreline of 2-0 aligns neatly with these dynamics.

Betting value reveals itself with Tigres UANL at odds that don't fully reflect their statistical edge. Look to those odds if they stand above the implied probability, turning a seemingly straightforward matchup into a calculated play on the hosts' resilience and offensive promise.

Tigres UANL

Form LWDDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #15xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Juan BrunettaCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.22
Diego LainezRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Diego Alexander Sánchez GuevaraLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.19

Puebla

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #18xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Ignacio Daniel Maestro PuchFxG 0.25 · xT -0.06
Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
Eduardo Mustre TorresFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Tigres UANL – Puebla

Predicted score matrix

Puebla →

Tigres UANL →

0–06.7%

0–15.1%

0–22.3%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.9%

1–110.6%

1–24.3%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.8%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.4%

3–16.2%

3–22.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.4%

4+–14.6%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,91–0,85

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.18EV+5%

Over 2,552%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tigres UANL to win68%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tigres UANL to win68%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rodrigo Sebastián Aguirre Soto to score42%
Sergio Abel Sanabria Ortega to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.548% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.548% probability@2.18BetssonEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.548% probability@2.18NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tigres UANL	X	2 · Puebla
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 1.52	4.15	5.40
Betsson	EV+ 4% 1.52	4.15	5.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 1.52	4.15	5.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 1.50	4.62	5.59

Odds updated 21 Sept, 20:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

66 %61 %

1.49 → 1.50

X-1 %

23 %18 %

4.68 → 4.62

2-3 %

19 %14 %

5.77 → 5.59

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Tigres UANL 2Draw 1Puebla 1

Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Tigres UANL win 64% of their home matches all-time (44 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tigres UANL

Puebla

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tigres UANL (9–11)

Puebla (10–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tigres UANL

Puebla

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tigres UANL

Puebla

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tigres UANL	Puebla
Points	7	13
xPoints	9.1	12.5
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.14

Playing style	Tigres UANL	Puebla
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.58	0.44
xT per match	0.85	0.7
xTA per match	0.89	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	30	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.18
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	342	272
Passes against per match	314	454
Switches of play per match	28.3	31
Long balls per match	32	39

Set pieces	Tigres UANL	Puebla
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.01
Corners per match	6.6	4.9
Corners against per match	4.1	6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.62

Other	Tigres UANL	Puebla
Throw-in control	0.6	0.67

The goalkeepers	Nahuel Guzman (Tigres UANL)	Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla)
Saves	26	25
Save %	70%	76%
xG prevented	50%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tigres UANL

Fixtures, form & tips

Puebla

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tigres UANL vs Puebla according to our model?

The model gives Tigres UANL a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tigres UANL 68%, draw 18%, Puebla 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.