Brann vs Viking Prediction: Away win 48% (9 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien9 October 20265°16 km/h

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BrannPossession & high press

VikingPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Viking (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.85 (+15 %)

1 · Brann 29%X 23%48% Viking · 2

29%

23%

48%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Brann – Viking

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Viking's attacking prowess is undeniable, with the team finding the net in ten consecutive league matches. This offensive consistency plays a critical role as they take on Brann, whose home fortress has seen them win 61% of their matches historically but faces a stern test. The visitors' ability to consistently score, paired with their favorable head-to-head record, albeit from a small sample size, suggests a strategic advantage.

Brann's approach of possession and high pressing mirrors that of their opponents, setting the stage for an intense midfield battle. However, the hosts trail in expected goals with 1.35 compared to Viking's 1.73, highlighting their challenge to convert possession into quality chances. The expected goals against (xGA) further tilt the balance toward the visitors, suggesting that Viking's defense may better withstand the pressure, conceding an average of 1.3 goals per match to Brann's 1.6.

Weather conditions, notably 22.5 mm of rain, could play a role in tempering the goal tally, yet this is already accounted for in the model's predictions. The model forecasts a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting the historically high-scoring nature of this fixture, which averages 3.2 goals per meeting.

Despite Brann's strong home record, the model's probabilities favor Viking with a 48% chance of victory. The most likely scorelines suggest a narrow edge, with 1-1 and 1-2 being prominent outcomes. Notably, the odds from LeoVegas present value on an away win at 2.15, offering a 3% edge. Simultaneously, the under 3.5 goals market at odds of 1.727 provides an even greater value, with the model rating it at a 63% likelihood, which translates to an 8% edge.

In this clash, Viking's form and statistical edge suggest they are well-placed to capitalize, potentially emerging with a 1-2 victory. The betting value aligns with the under 3.5 goals scenario, a sensible stake given the conditions and both teams' profiles.

Brann

Form WDLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #3xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Noah HolmFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
Niklas CastroLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.45
Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.36

Viking

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Zlatko TripicLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.70
Edvin AustboLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
Simen Kvia EgeskogFxG 0.20 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Brann – Viking

Predicted score matrix

Viking →

Brann →

0–04.9%

0–17.6%

0–26.9%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.5%

1–05.9%

1–111.0%

1–29.3%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.2%

2–17.2%

2–26.3%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.9%

3–13.3%

3–22.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,35–1,73

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.85EV+12%

Over 2,560%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Viking to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Viking to win48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Peter Buch Christiansen to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Noah Emmanuel Jean Holm to score29%
Joe Zen Robert Bell to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.540% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.78BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Under 1.518% probability@6.10NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brann	X	2 · Viking
Betsafe	2.85	3.85	EV+ 6% 2.22
LeoVegas	2.75	3.80	EV+ 3% 2.15
Nordicbet	2.88	3.90	EV+ 8% 2.25

Odds updated 2 Oct, 19:36

Odds movement

10 %

36 %31 %

2.75 → 2.75

X+1 %

27 %22 %

3.75 → 3.80

20 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.15

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Brann 1Draw 2Viking 2

Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Viking FK dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
Viking FK have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Brann win 61% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brann

Viking

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brann (39–32)

Viking (54–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brann

Viking

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brann

Viking

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brann	Viking
Points	29	50
xPoints	26.1	36.3
xG per match	1.8	2.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.56
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.19

Playing style	Brann	Viking
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.65	0.61
xT per match	1.6	1.7
xTA per match	1.1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	30	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.25
Entries into the box per match	21	18
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	433	377
Passes against per match	283	355
Switches of play per match	28.2	28
Long balls per match	37	37

Set pieces	Brann	Viking
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.08
Corners per match	6.6	7
Corners against per match	5.1	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.61

Other	Brann	Viking
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Mathias Dyngeland (Brann)	Arild Ostbo (Viking)
Saves	40	29
Save %	66%	78%
xG prevented	45%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brann

Fixtures, form & tips

Viking

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brann vs Viking according to our model?

The model gives Viking a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brann 29%, draw 23%, Viking 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.