01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lillestrøm or draw (1X)56%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Norwegian Eliteserien2°0,6 mm11 km/h
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LillestrømBalanced & physicalvs
MoldePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Lillestrøm (37%)Soft draw
Lillestrøm vs Molde · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Lillestrøm 37%X 27%37% Molde · 2
37%
27%
37%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Lillestrøm – Molde
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Both teams sit at 37% on the model probabilities, yet the lean tips slightly towards Lillestrøm — an intriguing tension given Molde's consistent scoring streak. Molde's attacking prowess is evidenced by their 13 consecutive league matches with a goal. The expected goals further support this, with Molde at 1.81 compared to Lillestrøm's 1.52.
The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-2, reflect a tight contest with a slight edge to the visitors, supported by Molde's superior xG metrics (1.9) and their defensive advantage with xGA at 1.2, compared to the hosts' 1.6. Despite Lillestrøm's physical approach, Molde's high press might exploit defensive gaps, especially as they seek to capitalize on their possession style. However, the small head-to-head sample should not be overly weighted against Lillestrøm's current form.
With a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to score, a scoreline of 1-2 seems plausible. A high-stakes game with a potential for goals could see bettors eyeing the overs for a promising return.
LillestrømForm DLWWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #12xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
- Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22
MoldeForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Fredrik GulbrandsenFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01
- Eirik HestadRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09
- Halldor StenevikRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
Match prediction: Lillestrøm – Molde
Predicted score matrix
Molde →
Lillestrøm →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–16.2%
0–25.9%
0–33.5%
0–4+2.4%
1
1–05.2%
1–110.2%
1–28.9%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.6%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.5%
2–26.8%
2–34.1%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.8%
3–23.4%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.8%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,52–1,81
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@3.10EV+8%
Over 2,564%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lillestrøm or draw (1X)56%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Vladimiro Etson António Félix to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Eirik Hestad to score26%
- Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lillestrøm37% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Lillestrøm37% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Lillestrøm37% probability@3.03PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lillestrøm | X | 2 · Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 12% 3.05 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 2.88 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 14% 3.10 | EV+ 4% 3.90 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 11% 3.03 | EV+ 7% 4.01 | 2.12 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 19:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesLillestrøm 1Draw 0Molde 2
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Molde have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lillestrøm
Molde
Lillestrøm (28–29)
Molde (44–32)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lillestrøm
Molde
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lillestrøm
Molde
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lillestrøm | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 36 |
| xPoints | 28.2 | 31.9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Lillestrøm | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 402 | 481 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 308 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 26.2 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Lillestrøm | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| Other | Lillestrøm | Molde |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) | Albert Posiadała (Molde) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 79 | 43 |
| Save % | 74% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lillestrøm vs Molde according to our model?
The model gives Lillestrøm a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lillestrøm 37%, draw 27%, Molde 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.