01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Start to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Norwegian Eliteserien7°3,6 mm24 km/h
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StartLow block & directvs
HamarkamerateneLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Start (47%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.26 (+11 %)
Start vs Hamarkameratene · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Start 47%X 28%25% Hamarkameratene · 2
47%
28%
25%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Start – Hamarkameratene
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Hamarkameratene's recent slide — three consecutive losses — hangs over their trip to face Start, where the numbers shine a light on a deeper story. Despite trailing the visitors in the actual points tally, Start's xPoints tell a different tale. The hosts have underperformed, sitting at 26.0 xPoints compared to their 16 actual points, highlighting a potential for regression to the mean.
The expected goals metrics add another layer to the puzzle. Start's edge at 1.54 expected goals against Hamarkameratene's 1.17 suggests that the hosts have the firepower to break through a defense that matches theirs in frailty — each team concedes 1.9 xGA per game. This parity in defensive vulnerability combined with their direct playing styles means chances may well come at both ends, though the rain-soaked conditions could play a part in tempering scoring as it blends into the model's lean figures.
Yet, Hamarkameratene's raw points advantage cannot be ignored, indicating a knack for grinding out results that belies their xG underperformance. Their singular head-to-head win against Start since 2021, though from a small sample size, nods to a psychological edge. However, the visitors' form has unraveled, setting the stage for Start to exploit their home advantage.
The model probabilities favor Start at 47% to win, with a 10% chance of a 1-0 triumph standing out among the most likely scorelines. Despite the evenly matched expected goals, the edge in model probabilities aligns with the hosts correcting their underachievement. The over 2.5 goals probability hovers at 51%, suggesting a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair, but the persistent rain might just tip it towards the under.
Keep an eye on the visitors' form slump; it may just be the key to unlocking value in this contest.
StartForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #9xP/match #12Points #16
Key players
- Jesper Cornelius RasmussenFxG 0.39 · xT 0.10
- Hakon LorentzenFxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
- Tom StrannegardLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
HamarkamerateneForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #15xP/match #15Points #13
Key players
- Henrik UdahlFxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
- Loris MettlerFxG 0.21 · xT 0.19
- Mame Alassane NiangFxG 0.37 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Start – Hamarkameratene
Predicted score matrix
Hamarkameratene →
Start →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–17.4%
0–24.6%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.9%
1–112.3%
1–27.0%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.2%
2–25.4%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.0%
3–14.7%
3–22.8%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,54–1,17
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.26EV+11%
Over 2,551%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Start to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jesper Cornelius Rasmussen to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jesper Cornelius Rasmussen to score23%
- Ethan Amundsen-Day to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.549% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.87PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Start | X | 2 · Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | EV+ 8% 3.87 | 3.76 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:04
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesStart 0Draw 0Hamarkameratene 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Hamarkameratene have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Start
Hamarkameratene
Start (22–44)
Hamarkameratene (29–44)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Start
Hamarkameratene
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Start
Hamarkameratene
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Start | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 23 |
| xPoints | 26 | 24.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Start | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 288 | 359 |
| Passes against per match | 427 | 440 |
| Switches of play per match | 23 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Start | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| Other | Start | Hamarkameratene |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Pryts (Start) | Marcus Sandberg (Hamarkameratene) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 41 | 78 |
| Save % | 53% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Start vs Hamarkameratene according to our model?
The model gives Start a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Start 47%, draw 28%, Hamarkameratene 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.