01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Vålerenga or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Norwegian Eliteserien4°0,6 mm9 km/h
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KFUMBalanced & physicalvs
VålerengaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Vålerenga (44%)
KFUM vs Vålerenga · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · KFUM 29%X 27%44% Vålerenga · 2
29%
27%
44%
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Analysis: KFUM – Vålerenga
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: A subtle clash of form and projection shapes the upcoming battle between KFUM and Vålerenga. The visitors hold a clear edge with a 44% probability of victory according to model predictions, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw. Yet, KFUM's slight points lead in the standings (25 to 23) hints at their knack for converting chances when it matters. It's a delicate balance between the raw numbers and the tangible results these teams have mustered.
KFUM's physical style, while balanced, hasn't translated into robust defensive metrics, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Contrarily, Vålerenga’s defensive solidity is marginally better at 1.6 goals against per match. With rain expected to dampen the turf, both sides may find it tricky to maintain their usual physicality, which often dictates their gameplay. Nonetheless, these conditions have already been factored into the model’s expectations.
Head-to-head, it's a small sample: just three meetings since 2021, with Vålerenga unbeaten. This history might suggest a psychological edge but pales against the season-long data where the xPoints favor Vålerenga 29 to 25. The scoring potential tips towards the visitors, too, with an expected 1.6 goals per match against KFUM's 1.1, adding weight to the probability of both teams finding the net, currently at 61%.
Despite the balanced and physical nature of these sides, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at a tempting 59%. In a match poised on a knife-edge, Vålerenga's form and tactical edge suggest they might just edge it.
KFUMForm DLLWW
League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #14xP/match #14Points #10
Key players
- Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
- Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
- Bilal NjieLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
VålerengaForm DLDLD
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #5xP/match #7Points #12
Key players
- Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
- Mathias GrundetjernFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04
- Lucas Janus Ravn-HarenLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: KFUM – Vålerenga
Predicted score matrix
Vålerenga →
KFUM →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–17.8%
0–27.1%
0–34.1%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–05.8%
1–111.1%
1–29.4%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.1%
2–26.2%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–13.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,32–1,74
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
–
Over 2,559%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Vålerenga or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Mathias Grundetjern to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Mathias Grundetjern to score30%
- Magnus Hee Westergaard to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesKFUM 0Draw 2Vålerenga 1
Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
KFUM
Vålerenga
KFUM (25–35)
Vålerenga (34–43)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
KFUM
Vålerenga
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
KFUM
Vålerenga
The teams in numbers
| Performance | KFUM | Vålerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 23 |
| xPoints | 25 | 29 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | KFUM | Vålerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 326 | 373 |
| Passes against per match | 441 | 379 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.3 | 24.7 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 33 |
| Set pieces | KFUM | Vålerenga |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| Other | KFUM | Vålerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Emil Ødegaard (KFUM) | Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 68 |
| Save % | 74% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins KFUM vs Vålerenga according to our model?
The model gives Vålerenga a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KFUM 29%, draw 27%, Vålerenga 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.