Bodø/Glimt vs Kristiansund Prediction: Home win 83% (10 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien10 October 20263°0,3 mm14 km/h

Läs på svenska

Bodø/GlimtPossession & high press

KristiansundLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (83%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kristiansund @ 36.00 (+124 %)

1 · Bodø/Glimt 83%X 11%6% Kristiansund · 2

83%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Kristiansund

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Bodø/Glimt have dominated Kristiansund in their recent head-to-head matchups, winning four of the five encounters since 2021. While the sample size is small, it aligns with the broader statistical dominance the home side displays in the Eliteserien. With a robust 78% win rate at home over 40 matches, it's hard to see the visitors breaking through at Aspmyra Stadion.

The statistical underpinnings of this matchup further skew heavily in favor of the hosts. Bodø/Glimt are averaging 3.0 expected goals per match against Kristiansund's 1.2, with the home side also more secure defensively. The expected goals against (xGA) for Bodø/Glimt stands at 0.98 per match, compared to the visitors’ 1.9. The possession-based, high-press style of Bodø/Glimt is set to pin Kristiansund's low defensive setup in their own half, creating a fertile ground for scoring opportunities.

With the model assigning an 83% chance of victory to Bodø/Glimt and projecting a 74% probability for over 2.5 goals, it's clear which side is favored. The most likely scorelines of 3-0 and 2-0 suggest a comprehensive home win, while the recent form backs this up; Bodø/Glimt have found the net in 14 consecutive league matches, showcasing their relentless attacking prowess.

For the betting angle, two value bets emerge. The under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.769 with LeoVegas offers a 17% edge according to the model, appealing to those seeking a safe yet profitable play. Meanwhile, for the risk-takers, the draw at odds of 10.0, with a 10% edge, is an intriguing long shot. However, given the statistics and form, the prudent path points to a stable home win with a lean toward under 4.5 goals.

Bodø/Glimt

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.98 · xT 0.04
Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.36
Fredrik SjovoldRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.39

Kristiansund

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #16xP/match #10Points #15

Key players

Leander AlvheimFxG 0.40 · xT 0.01
Jesper IsaksenLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Sander Hestetun KilenLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Kristiansund

Predicted score matrix

Kristiansund →

Bodø/Glimt →

0–02.3%

0–11.4%

0–20.6%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–06.5%

1–15.1%

1–21.8%

1–30.4%

1–4+0.1%

2–010.3%

2–17.6%

2–22.8%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.7%

3–17.9%

3–22.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–017.9%

4+–113.2%

4+–24.9%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.3-011%
2.2-010%
3.4-08%
4.3-18%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

3,10–0,74

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,8

18%

216%

320%

419%

5+34%

Under 2,526%

@4.80EV+22%

Over 2,574%

@1.19

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bodø/Glimt to win83%
Over 1.5 goals90%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bodø/Glimt to win83%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Ole Didrik Blomberg to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Ole Didrik Blomberg to score33%
Wilfred George Igor to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kristiansund6% probability@36.00NordicbetEV+124%reference odds
2 · Kristiansund6% probability@33.00BetsafeEV+105%reference odds
Under 3.547% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bodø/Glimt	X	2 · Kristiansund
Betsafe	1.09	8.90	EV+ 105% 33.00
LeoVegas	1.07	EV+ 4% 9.50	EV+ 6% 17.00
Nordicbet	1.10	9.00	EV+ 124% 36.00

Odds updated 2 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

10 %

88 %83 %

1.07 → 1.07

X-5 %

12 %7 %

10.00 → 9.50

2+13 %

8 %3 %

15.00 → 17.00

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Bodø/Glimt 4Draw 1Kristiansund 0

Goals: 19–4 (⌀ 4,6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

FK Bodo/Glimt dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.6 goals per meeting on average.
FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
FK Bodo/Glimt win 78% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodø/Glimt

Kristiansund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodø/Glimt (53–19)

Kristiansund (21–40)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Kristiansund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Kristiansund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodø/Glimt	Kristiansund
Points	50	19
xPoints	41.1	26.6
xG per match	3	1.2
xGA per match	0.98	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.51	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.3

Playing style	Bodø/Glimt	Kristiansund
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.82	0.4
xT per match	2	0.73
xTA per match	0.68	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	31	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.19
Entries into the box per match	29	10
Entries into the box against	9	16
Pass completion %	0.84	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.7
Passes per match	591	313
Passes against per match	304	446
Switches of play per match	43.6	25.1
Long balls per match	44	34

Set pieces	Bodø/Glimt	Kristiansund
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	7.8	4.3
Corners against per match	2.5	6.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.7

Other	Bodø/Glimt	Kristiansund
Throw-in control	0.74	0.66

The goalkeepers	Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt)	Adrian Saether (Kristiansund)
Saves	43	44
Save %	75%	69%
xG prevented	54%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodø/Glimt

Fixtures, form & tips

Kristiansund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Kristiansund according to our model?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 83% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 83%, draw 11%, Kristiansund 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 3-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 74% and under at 26%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.