01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Norwegian Eliteserien3°1,8 mm7 km/h
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FredrikstadBalanced & physicalvs
TromsøPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Tromsø (41%)
Fredrikstad vs Tromsø · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Fredrikstad 34%X 25%41% Tromsø · 2
34%
25%
41%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Fredrikstad – Tromsø
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With Tromsø's high press against Fredrikstad's balanced and physical approach, the clash at Fredrikstad Stadion brings a tactical contrast that could shape the evening. Tromsø's preference for possession and pressure could unsettle the hosts, who might struggle to dictate the pace in the face of relentless pressing. The visitors' playstyle seems tailor-made to exploit Fredrikstad's defensive vulnerabilities, highlighted by the hosts' higher expected goals against (1.9) compared to Tromsø's 1.4.
The numbers favor Tromsø, with a 41% win probability, nudging ahead of Fredrikstad's 34%. Recent form amplifies this edge: Tromsø has amassed 38 points to Fredrikstad's 28, with an xG advantage per match of 1.8 to 1.2. In a small head-to-head sample since 2021, Tromsø took the solitary match played, although such limited encounters weigh less in predictive power than current form and expected goals.
Expected goals suggest a tight contest with Tromsø at 1.46 and Fredrikstad at 1.37, hinting at a narrow margin. Most likely scorelines like 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9%) suggest a competitive affair, but the projected over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 57% imply potential for more open play than the weather might suggest. The forecasted rain could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, but this factor is already included in the model's calculations.
Given the statistical edge and tactical setup, Tromsø looks the stronger side. Their ability to maintain possession and apply pressure could lead to a slim victory, with 1-2 being a plausible outcome. The over 2.5 goals market at 54% presents slight value, and Bet365’s odds of 2.10 for over 2.5 goals are worth considering for those seeking a sharper angle on the evening's action.
FredrikstadForm WWLDD
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #13xP/match #16Points #8
Key players
- Daniel EidRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.25
- Benjamin FaraasFxG 0.36 · xT 0.03
- Henrik SkogvoldFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
TromsøForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #6xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Heine Asen LarsenFxG 0.63 · xT 0.02
- Daniel BrautFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
- Abubacarr Sedi KintehCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Fredrikstad – Tromsø
Predicted score matrix
Tromsø →
Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–18.3%
0–26.3%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–07.8%
1–112.2%
1–28.6%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.5%
2–18.1%
2–25.9%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.7%
3–22.7%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,37–1,46
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.05
Over 2,554%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Lars Olden Larsen to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Lars Olden Larsen to score26%
- Isak Vådebu to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tromsø41% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fredrikstad | X | 2 · Tromsø |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| LeoVegas | 2.70 | 3.35 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 14:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesFredrikstad 0Draw 0Tromsø 1
Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fredrikstad
Tromsø
Fredrikstad (25–32)
Tromsø (40–29)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Tromsø
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Tromsø
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fredrikstad | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 38 |
| xPoints | 22.9 | 33.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Fredrikstad | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 388 | 431 |
| Passes against per match | 431 | 418 |
| Switches of play per match | 27 | 23.9 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Fredrikstad | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Other | Fredrikstad | Tromsø |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad) | Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 69 | 48 |
| Save % | 68% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fredrikstad vs Tromsø according to our model?
The model gives Tromsø a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fredrikstad 34%, draw 25%, Tromsø 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.