01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rosenborg to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Norwegian Eliteserien5°18 km/h
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RosenborgCounter-attacks & crossesvs
SandefjordPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Rosenborg (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sandefjord @ 7.90 (+42 %)
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Rosenborg 61%X 21%18% Sandefjord · 2
61%
21%
18%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Rosenborg – Sandefjord
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Rosenborg have the upper hand in their recent head-to-head battles with Sandefjord, two wins to one across a small sample of five meetings. The hosts' form further bolsters their position, coming off three consecutive victories. Scoring in 11 straight league matches, Rosenborg’s attack is firing, which is reflected in the expected goals: 2.19 compared to Sandefjord's 1.15.
The visitors prefer possession control, yet they have struggled to convert this style into consistent results, indicated by their lower point tally and expected points compared to Rosenborg. Sandefjord have also conceded more goals on average per match, which could be exacerbated by the predicted rainy conditions, likely to favour Rosenborg’s counter-attacking and cross-heavy approach.
Most likely scorelines favor the home side: a 2-1 victory at 10% likelihood is the frontrunner, followed by a 1-1 draw at 9% and a 2-0 win at 8%. The model underscores an inclination towards over 2.5 goals, with a strong 65% possibility. This is consistent with the offensive tendencies of both teams and Rosenborg’s recent scoring run.
Despite these insights, there is value on Sandefjord with LeoVegas offering odds of 6.25 for an away win, a market discrepancy given the model's 18% probability. While the odds for a draw at 4.8 offer no edge, this clash sets up an intriguing potential upset, albeit against the grain of form and underlying numbers. The smart money leans towards Rosenborg, but poking at the value on Sandefjord might tempt the bold.
RosenborgForm WLWWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #8xP/match #5Points #5
Key players
- Emil Konradsen CeideLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.19
- Amin ChiakhaFxG 0.53 · xT 0.03
- Simen Bolkan NordliLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.10
SandefjordForm WDDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.23
- Jakob DunsbyLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.22
- Zinedin SmajlovicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Rosenborg – Sandefjord
Predicted score matrix
Sandefjord →
Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–13.8%
0–22.3%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–07.5%
1–19.2%
1–25.1%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.5%
2–19.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–06.2%
3–17.1%
3–24.1%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–16.5%
4+–23.7%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,19–1,15
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,535%
@2.82
Over 2,565%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rosenborg to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Amin Chiakha to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Amin Chiakha to score31%
- Zinedin Smajlović to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sandefjord18% probability@7.90NordicbetEV+42%reference odds
- 2 · Sandefjord18% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · Sandefjord18% probability@6.25LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rosenborg | X | 2 · Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.39 | EV+ 0% 4.80 | EV+ 40% 7.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.36 | EV+ 0% 4.80 | EV+ 12% 6.25 |
| Nordicbet | 1.40 | EV+ 1% 4.85 | EV+ 42% 7.90 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesRosenborg 2Draw 2Sandefjord 1
Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,4)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Rosenborg dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- Rosenborg come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Rosenborg have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- Rosenborg win 59% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rosenborg
Sandefjord
Rosenborg (39–30)
Sandefjord (21–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Sandefjord
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rosenborg
Sandefjord
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rosenborg | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 33 | 23 |
| xPoints | 31.7 | 25.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Rosenborg | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 392 | 397 |
| Passes against per match | 346 | 386 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 28.2 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Rosenborg | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.6 |
| Other | Rosenborg | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Leopold Wahlstedt (Rosenborg) | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 71 | 72 |
| Save % | 71% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rosenborg vs Sandefjord according to our model?
The model gives Rosenborg a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosenborg 61%, draw 21%, Sandefjord 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.