Bodø/Glimt vs Sandefjord: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien12 September 20269°2,8 mm19 km/h

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Bodø/GlimtPossession & high press

SandefjordBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (82%)

1 · Bodø/Glimt 82%X 11%7% Sandefjord · 2

82%

Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Sandefjord

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Bodø/Glimt's recent dominance is undeniable, highlighted by eight straight wins and a remarkable record of scoring in 12 consecutive league matches. They're not just winning; they're winning convincingly. The model backs this up with an 82% probability for a home win against Sandefjord, and historical form doesn't argue otherwise. Glimt's offense, with expected goals at 2.93 per game, is a nightmare for any defense, especially for a Sandefjord side that concedes 1.7 xGA on average.

Sandefjord's chances look slim, pinned at a mere 7% probability of an upset. Yet, they might find some hope in their balanced, physical style. It could disrupt Glimt's possession-heavy approach, but the visitors' inconsistent form and their league position suggest otherwise. The head-to-head record, albeit limited to five games since 2021, favors the hosts with three victories, showing Glimt's historical edge.

The weather brings a damp element to the proceedings, with 2.8 mm of rain expected, which might temper goal-scoring but seems already factored into the model's figures. Over 2.5 goals is still a robust 74% probability, indicating the rain may not entirely quench Glimt's fiery attack.

A 2-0 or 3-0 victory for the home team emerges as the most likely outcome, supported by both their attacking prowess and Sandefjord's defensive vulnerabilities. The over 2.5 goals market, with odds reflecting a 74% likelihood, seems like the sensible play here.

For those looking for value, Bodø/Glimt's dominance at home, winning 77% of their games all-time, suggests backing them at odds of 1.22 with Bet365 remains a shrewd choice. While no bet is guaranteed, this one seems as safe as they come in football betting terms.

Bodø/Glimt

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.90 · xT 0.09
Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.40
Fredrik SjovoldRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.40

Sandefjord

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #15xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
Jakob DunsbyLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
Vetle Walle EgeliLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Sandefjord

Predicted score matrix

Sandefjord →

Bodø/Glimt →

0–02.2%

0–11.8%

0–20.9%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–05.9%

1–15.9%

1–22.7%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.3%

2–08.9%

2–18.4%

2–24.0%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.7%

3–18.2%

3–23.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–013.0%

4+–112.4%

4+–25.9%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-09%
2.3-09%
3.2-18%
4.3-18%
5.4-06%

Expected goals

2,93–0,95

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,9

18%

216%

320%

420%

5+35%

Under 2,526%

–

Over 2,574%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bodø/Glimt to win82%
Over 1.5 goals90%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bodø/Glimt to win82%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Jens Petter Hauge to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Jens Petter Hauge to score43%
Edvard Sundbø Pettersen to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Bodø/Glimt	X	2 · Sandefjord
Pinnacle	1.17	8.55	10.51

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:05

Odds movement

10 %

83 %78 %

1.17 → 1.17

X-1 %

13 %8 %

8.66 → 8.55

2-2 %

11 %6 %

10.73 → 10.51

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Bodø/Glimt 3Draw 1Sandefjord 1

Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

FK Bodo/Glimt dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
FK Bodo/Glimt come into this round on 8 straight wins.
FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
FK Bodo/Glimt win 77% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodø/Glimt

Sandefjord

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodø/Glimt (49–15)

Sandefjord (16–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Sandefjord

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Sandefjord

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodø/Glimt	Sandefjord
Points	47	20
xPoints	34.5	23
xG per match	2.7	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.24

Playing style	Bodø/Glimt	Sandefjord
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.29
Field tilt	0.82	0.42
xT per match	2	0.85
xTA per match	0.68	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	30	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	29	12
Entries into the box against	8	18
Pass completion %	0.85	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.73
Passes per match	596	393
Passes against per match	309	375
Switches of play per match	41.7	27.7
Long balls per match	44	39

Set pieces	Bodø/Glimt	Sandefjord
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	7.8	5.7
Corners against per match	2.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.63

Other	Bodø/Glimt	Sandefjord
Throw-in control	0.76	0.68

The goalkeepers	Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt)	Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord)
Saves	41	66
Save %	75%	73%
xG prevented	53%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodø/Glimt

Fixtures, form & tips

Sandefjord

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Sandefjord according to our model?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 82%, draw 11%, Sandefjord 7%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 74% and under at 26%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.