01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fredrikstad or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Norwegian Eliteserien15°16 km/h
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FredrikstadBalanced & physicalvs
SarpsborgLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Fredrikstad (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.15 (+2 %)
Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Fredrikstad 37%X 27%36% Sarpsborg · 2
37%
27%
36%
Analysis: Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Fredrikstad holds a slight edge with a 37% win probability against Sarpsborg's 36%, suggesting a tightly contested match. The most probable scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 reflect the narrow margins. While Fredrikstad shows historical dominance with two wins in five meetings, this small sample size carries less weight than current form and expected goals. The hosts' balanced and physical style contrasts with Sarpsborg's low defense approach, indicating a strategic clash.
The numbers reveal Fredrikstad's edge in points but a significant underperformance in xPoints compared to Sarpsborg. The visitors excel in xG per match at 1.6 versus Fredrikstad’s 1.3, and they also boast a stronger xGA. These metrics suggest Sarpsborg might control the game more than the table suggests. However, Fredrikstad’s physicality and home advantage could counteract Sarpsborg's direct play, with over 2.5 goals rated at 52% and both teams to score at 57%, suggesting goals are still likely from both sides rather than a low-scoring affair.
The under 2.5 goals market holds value at odds of 2.15 with both Betsson and Nordicbet, offering a 2% edge according to the model. Given the tight match and the balance in team statistics, 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline, though the model's overall lean still favors a Fredrikstad win. The under 3.5 option at 1.46 with Nordicbet, though less lucrative, carries a solid 2% edge and aligns well with the expected conservative play.
FredrikstadForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #14xP/match #17Points #8
Key players
- Daniel EidRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
- Benjamin FaraasFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
- Henrik SkogvoldFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03
SarpsborgForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #10xP/match #3Points #9
Key players
- Daniel KarlsbakkFxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
- Sondre SorliRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
- Aimar SherCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg
Predicted score matrix
Sarpsborg →
Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–18.2%
0–25.8%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.4%
1–28.2%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.5%
2–25.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.0%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,41–1,36
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.15EV+1%
Over 2,552%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fredrikstad or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Rocco Robert Shein to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Rocco Robert Shein to score26%
- Aimar Hazar Sher to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.548% probability@2.15BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.15NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fredrikstad | X | 2 · Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 2.78 |
| Betsson | 2.45 | 3.55 | EV+ 1% 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.55 | EV+ 1% 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.45 | 3.58 | 2.77 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29
Odds movement
10 %
41 %36 %
2.44 → 2.45
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.61 → 3.58
20 %
37 %32 %
2.77 → 2.77
Over 2,5+2 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFredrikstad 2Draw 2Sarpsborg 1
Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Fredrikstad dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg
Fredrikstad (23–30)
Sarpsborg (22–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fredrikstad | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 24 |
| xPoints | 20.7 | 29.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Fredrikstad | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 377 | 325 |
| Passes against per match | 437 | 430 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 26.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Fredrikstad | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| Other | Fredrikstad | Sarpsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad) | Leander Oy (Sarpsborg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 65 | 38 |
| Save % | 68% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg according to our model?
The model gives Fredrikstad a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fredrikstad 37%, draw 27%, Sarpsborg 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.