Norwegian Eliteserien15°13 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    KFUMKFUMBalanced & physical
    vs
    AalesundAalesundLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · KFUM (44%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.40 (+7 %)

    KFUM – Aalesund · Norwegian Eliteserien

    1 · KFUM 44%X 26%30% Aalesund · 2

    Analysis: KFUM – Aalesund

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Aalesund's 12-game scoring streak poses a stark challenge to KFUM's balanced and physical setup. Despite the visitors' direct style, which typically thrives on quick transitions, the hosts hold a 44% probability of clinching victory per the model. This game is not just about breaking defenses; it’s an intricate dance between KFUM's physical approach and Aalesund's relentless drive forward.

    What makes this matchup intriguing is the slight edge KFUM holds in terms of points (19 to Aalesund's 18). However, Aalesund's higher xPoints (26.9) compared to the hosts' 21.8 suggests a side that underperforms its potential. Despite this, Aalesund's defense remains fragile, conceding 2.1 xGA per match, opening a window for KFUM, especially on their home turf.

    The expected goals metric paints a picture of a tightly contested affair, with KFUM's 1.54 edging out their opponent's 1.35. While the most likely scorelines point towards balanced results—1-1 at 12% and 2-1 at 9%—the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 55%. However, given both teams' profiles and Aalesund's tendency to find the net, the 59% chance of both teams scoring seems a compelling narrative.

    Considering the numbers and the styles at play, leaning towards a low-scoring game might seem counterintuitive. Yet, there's a 7% value edge on under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.4 with both Betsson and Nordicbet. The model suggests a less goal-frenzied match, perhaps more tactical than the raw numbers initially imply.

    Thus, while the home win at odds 2.45 with Betsson offers another 7% value edge, the sharper angle might lie in betting on fewer than three goals. Expect KFUM to emerge narrowly—possibly a 2-1 result—while keeping an eye on how Aalesund navigates their attacking momentum against a resolute physical defense.

    KFUMKFUM
    Form WWDLL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #13xP/match #16Points #13
    Key players
    • Bilal NjieFxG 0.36 · xT 0.06
    • Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
    • Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.31
    AalesundAalesund
    Form LDDLW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #17xT #11xP/match #8Points #14
    Key players
    • Marcus Haagensen ReedFxG 0.40 · xT 0.03
    • Kristian Hemmingsen LonebuFxG 0.25 · xT 0.01
    • Endre Hjertager OsenbrochFxG 0.20 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: KFUM – Aalesund

    Predicted score matrix

    Aalesund →
    KFUM →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.9%
    0–17.1%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–111.9%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.9%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–14.6%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,35
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.40EV+5%
    Over 2,555%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance KFUM or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance KFUM or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Martin Tangen Vinjor to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Martin Tangen Vinjor to score22%
    • Robin Gravli Rasch to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.545% probability@2.40BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • Under 2.545% probability@2.40NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · KFUM44% probability@2.45BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KFUMX2 · Aalesund
    Betsafe
    EV+ 5%
    2.42    		3.652.70
    Betsson
    EV+ 7%
    2.45    		3.652.75
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    2.45    		3.652.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 5%
    2.42
    EV+ 1%
    3.85    		2.66

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 15:37

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    43 %38 %

    2.32 → 2.42

    X0 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.85

    2-4 %
    38 %33 %

    2.78 → 2.66

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    KFUM 0Draw 1Aalesund 0
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

    Key facts

    • Aalesund have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    KFUM
    Aalesund
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    KFUM (20–33)
    Aalesund (30–43)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    KFUM
    Daniel Schneider: 195 passningar, xT 0.29SchneiderBrage Skaret: 158 passningar, xT 0.25SkaretJonas Lange Hjorth: 142 passningar, xT 0.04HjorthHakon Helland Hoseth: 117 passningar, xT 0.17HosethMartin Tangen Vinjor: 112 passningar, xT 0VinjorHåkon Røsten: 105 passningar, xT 0.19RøstenJacob Blixt Flaten: 89 passningar, xT 0.21FlatenFredrik Tobias Berglie: 76 passningar, xT 0.01BerglieTore Andre Soras: 72 passningar, xT 0.04SorasRasmus Eggen Vinge: 71 passningar, xT 0.47VingeRobin Rasch: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Rasch
    Aalesund
    Mathias Minik Fals Schandorff Christensen: 165 passningar, xT 0.22ChristensenOlafur Gudmundsson: 165 passningar, xT 0.34GudmundssonElias Hagen: 149 passningar, xT 0.19HagenUba Charles: 121 passningar, xT 1.03CharlesEmil Patrik Engqvist: 101 passningar, xT 0.1EngqvistKristoffer Nesso: 96 passningar, xT 0.15NessoEndre Hjertager Osenbroch: 92 passningar, xT 0.66OsenbrochLuca Podlech: 85 passningar, xT 0.25PodlechMarius Andresen: 78 passningar, xT 0.82AndresenCheikh Mbacke Diop: 63 passningar, xT 0.04DiopHakon Butli Hammer: 59 passningar, xT 0.25Hammer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    KFUM
    Daniel Schneider: 195 passningar, xT 0.29SchneiderBrage Skaret: 158 passningar, xT 0.25SkaretJonas Lange Hjorth: 142 passningar, xT 0.04HjorthHakon Helland Hoseth: 117 passningar, xT 0.17HosethMartin Tangen Vinjor: 112 passningar, xT 0VinjorHåkon Røsten: 105 passningar, xT 0.19RøstenJacob Blixt Flaten: 89 passningar, xT 0.21FlatenFredrik Tobias Berglie: 76 passningar, xT 0.01BerglieTore Andre Soras: 72 passningar, xT 0.04SorasRasmus Eggen Vinge: 71 passningar, xT 0.47VingeRobin Rasch: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Rasch
    Aalesund
    Mathias Minik Fals Schandorff Christensen: 165 passningar, xT 0.22ChristensenOlafur Gudmundsson: 165 passningar, xT 0.34GudmundssonElias Hagen: 149 passningar, xT 0.19HagenUba Charles: 121 passningar, xT 1.03CharlesEmil Patrik Engqvist: 101 passningar, xT 0.1EngqvistKristoffer Nesso: 96 passningar, xT 0.15NessoEndre Hjertager Osenbroch: 92 passningar, xT 0.66OsenbrochLuca Podlech: 85 passningar, xT 0.25PodlechMarius Andresen: 78 passningar, xT 0.82AndresenCheikh Mbacke Diop: 63 passningar, xT 0.04DiopHakon Butli Hammer: 59 passningar, xT 0.25Hammer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKFUMAalesund
    Points1918
    xPoints21.826.9
    xG per match11.6
    xGA per match1.72.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.43
    Playing styleKFUMAalesund
    Build-up efficiency0.350.34
    Field tilt0.40.43
    xT per match0.920.95
    xTA per match1.21.5
    Won balls, offensive half2324
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.25
    Entries into the box per match1113
    Entries into the box against1718
    Pass completion %0.730.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.7
    Passes per match329302
    Passes against per match437420
    Switches of play per match18.615.4
    Long balls per match2725
    Set piecesKFUMAalesund
    xG from free kicks0.010.08
    Corners per match4.15.1
    Corners against per match5.37.6
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.060.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.51
    OtherKFUMAalesund
    Throw-in control0.720.7
    The goalkeepersEmil Ødegaard (KFUM)Kristoffer Klaesson (Aalesund)
    Saves2941
    Save %73%68%
    xG prevented60%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    KFUM
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Aalesund
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins KFUM vs Aalesund according to our model?

    The model gives KFUM a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KFUM 44%, draw 26%, Aalesund 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Bodø/GlimtBodø/Glimt
    3–0
    HamarkamerateneHamarkameratene
    1 81%X 11%2 7%
    The model called the outcome
    RosenborgRosenborg
    4–0
    FredrikstadFredrikstad
    1 48%X 26%2 26%
    The model called the outcome
    KristiansundKristiansund
    1–2
    StartStart
    1 43%X 26%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.