Start vs Brann: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien12 September 202615°13 km/h

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StartLow block & direct

BrannPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Brann (53%)

1 · Start 23%X 24%53% Brann · 2

23%

24%

53%

Analysis: Start – Brann

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: 53% is a stark number that sets Brann apart as the clear favorites against Start, who are trailing not only in points but also in the playing field's dynamics. The visitors' possession-based style contrasts with the hosts' direct approach, which may struggle to break through Brann's more controlled setup. Despite Start's xPoints suggesting they could have amassed more from their matches, it's Brann's real-world efficiency that's hard to overlook.

The most likely scorelines hover around close margins, with 1-1 and 1-2 both featuring prominently. Brann's xG superiority of 1.8 per match against Start's 1.4 underpins their attacking threat. Yet, these teams' expected goals against (xGA) are relatively aligned, hinting at a tight encounter where defensive discipline will be crucial. The model actually leans toward goals here, with over 2.5 goals rated at 58% and both teams to score also at 58%, suggesting an open, high-scoring affair is more likely than a tight, low-scoring one.

For those seeking a sharp angle, the away win offers value. Betsson and Nordicbet present odds of 2.05, and Betsafe at 2.02, with the model indicating a 53% likelihood. This discrepancy represents a tangible edge, making Brann's victory at those odds a considered play.

Start

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #9xP/match #9Points #16

Key players

Jesper Cornelius RasmussenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
Hakon LorentzenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
Tom StrannegardLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.28

Brann

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #2xP/match #10Points #7

Key players

Niklas CastroLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.54
Noah HolmFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.37

Match prediction: Start – Brann

Predicted score matrix

Brann →

Start →

0–05.1%

0–18.9%

0–28.9%

0–35.7%

0–4+4.2%

1–05.1%

1–110.6%

1–29.9%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.7%

2–03.0%

2–15.7%

2–25.5%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.6%

3–01.1%

3–12.1%

3–22.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,11–1,92

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.40

Over 2,558%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Brann to win53%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Brann to win53%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ulrik Mathisen to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ulrik Mathisen to score26%
Erlend Segberg to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Brann53% probability@2.05BetssonEV+9%reference odds
2 · Brann53% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
2 · Brann53% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Start	X	2 · Brann
Betsafe	3.45	3.65	EV+ 7% 2.02
Betsson	3.50	3.70	EV+ 9% 2.05
Nordicbet	3.50	3.70	EV+ 9% 2.05
Pinnacle	3.26	3.99	EV+ 8% 2.03

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31

Odds movement

1-2 %

31 %26 %

3.34 → 3.26

X+2 %

27 %22 %

3.93 → 3.99

2+1 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 2.03

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Start 0Draw 0Brann 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Start

Brann

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Start (20–41)

Brann (37–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Start

Brann

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Start

Brann

The teams in numbers

Performance	Start	Brann
Points	13	26
xPoints	25.3	23.8
xG per match	1.4	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.16

Playing style	Start	Brann
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.32	0.67
xT per match	1.1	1.6
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	29	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.32
Entries into the box per match	14	22
Entries into the box against	17	13
Pass completion %	0.7	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.71
Passes per match	288	438
Passes against per match	418	277
Switches of play per match	23	27.4
Long balls per match	37	35

Set pieces	Start	Brann
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.06
Corners per match	4.1	6.7
Corners against per match	5.3	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.59

Other	Start	Brann
Throw-in control	0.69	0.7

The goalkeepers	Jacob Pryts (Start)	Mathias Dyngeland (Brann)
Saves	40	37
Save %	52%	66%
xG prevented	29%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Start

Fixtures, form & tips

Brann

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Start vs Brann according to our model?

The model gives Brann a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Start 23%, draw 24%, Brann 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.