Hamarkameratene vs Molde: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien12 September 202612°16 km/h

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HamarkamerateneLow block & direct

MoldePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Molde (49%)Best value by the model: 1 · Hamarkameratene @ 4.21 (+15 %)

1 · Hamarkameratene 27%X 24%49% Molde · 2

27%

24%

49%

Analysis: Hamarkameratene – Molde

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Molde's dominance over Hamarkameratene is striking, with the visitors having won four out of their last five meetings since 2021. This small sample underscores Molde's upper hand in this matchup, but it's the form and expected goals that provide a clearer picture. Molde's possession style and high pressing game contrast sharply with Hamarkameratene's direct approach and defensive frailties, which may well tip the scales in favor of the visitors once again.

In terms of performance metrics, Molde holds a consistent edge. With expected goals (xG) per match at 1.8 compared to Hamarkameratene's 1.3, the visitors show a stronger offensive capacity. Defensively, the gap widens as Molde concedes fewer expected goals against (xGA) per match at 1.3, while the hosts languish at 1.7. This combination of superior attack and defense metrics bolsters Molde's 49% win probability, as projected by the model.

The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 11% probability, closely followed by a narrow 1-2 win for Molde at 9%. The model indicates a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals, aligning with the high-scoring tendencies expected from these contrasting styles. With both teams likely to find the net 63% of the time, bettors should consider the over 2.5 goals market as a reasonable play.

Betting value emerges with Molde's win, considering the solid form and favorable matchup dynamics. If odds at Bet365 reflect this at 1.95 or better, they might present positive expected value for those backing Molde. As always, while these numbers guide the analysis, they cannot guarantee outcomes — they merely illuminate the most probable paths.

Hamarkameratene

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #16xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Loris MettlerFxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
Mame Alassane NiangFxG 0.31 · xT -0.04
Henrik UdahlFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01

Molde

Form DLWDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #4xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Fredrik GulbrandsenFxG 0.32 · xT 0.00
Eirik HestadRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
Trent Toure Koné-DohertyFxG 0.68 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Hamarkameratene – Molde

Predicted score matrix

Molde →

Hamarkameratene →

0–04.3%

0–17.1%

0–26.8%

0–34.1%

0–4+2.9%

1–05.3%

1–110.5%

1–29.3%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.9%

2–03.8%

2–17.0%

2–26.4%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.7%

3–01.8%

3–13.2%

3–23.0%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-17%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,38–1,83

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Molde to win49%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Molde to win49%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Jacob Steen Vestergaard Christensen to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Jacob Steen Vestergaard Christensen to score25%
Daniel Demenenge Daga to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Hamarkameratene27% probability@4.21PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
Under 3.560% probability@1.72PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw24% probability@4.33PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hamarkameratene	X	2 · Molde
Pinnacle	EV+ 15% 4.21	EV+ 2% 4.33	1.72

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

1-3 %

25 %20 %

4.33 → 4.21

X+5 %

25 %20 %

4.13 → 4.33

20 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.72

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Hamarkameratene 1Draw 0Molde 4

Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Molde dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hamarkameratene

Molde

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hamarkameratene (26–36)

Molde (38–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hamarkameratene

Molde

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hamarkameratene

Molde

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hamarkameratene	Molde
Points	23	31
xPoints	23.4	28.6
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.24

Playing style	Hamarkameratene	Molde
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.33
Field tilt	0.34	0.6
xT per match	0.81	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	22	28
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	18	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.76
Passes per match	364	490
Passes against per match	433	319
Switches of play per match	26.1	25.3
Long balls per match	34	32

Set pieces	Hamarkameratene	Molde
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.09
Corners per match	4.2	5.5
Corners against per match	5.6	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.54

Other	Hamarkameratene	Molde
Throw-in control	0.69	0.71

The goalkeepers	Marcus Sandberg (Hamarkameratene)	Albert Posiadała (Molde)
Saves	68	38
Save %	67%	66%
xG prevented	45%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hamarkameratene

Fixtures, form & tips

Molde

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hamarkameratene vs Molde according to our model?

The model gives Molde a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hamarkameratene 27%, draw 24%, Molde 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.