Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Prediction: Home win 58% (17 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa17 October 202612°0,6 mm16 km/h

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Górnik ZabrzePossession control

Piast GliwiceBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Górnik Zabrze (58%)

1 · Górnik Zabrze 58%X 25%17% Piast Gliwice · 2

58%

25%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Górnik Zabrze win 58%, draw 25%, Piast Gliwice win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Górnik Zabrze 1.89, Piast Gliwice 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Górnik Zabrze or draw 83%, Piast Gliwice or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Górnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice

Sofia Andersson · 9 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The sharpest angle? Consider taking Górnik Zabrze to win, as the combination of model probability, head-to-head record, and underlying metrics all point toward the hosts' edge. With both form and data aligning, this is the pick that stands out for discerning bettors.

(All other sections of the text are consistent with the provided facts.)

**Full corrected text:**

Górnik Zabrze stands firm as the clear favorite hosting Piast Gliwice, with a 58% chance to clinch victory according to model probabilities. This is no mere gut feeling; it's grounded in hard numbers. The home side not only leads the head-to-head with 3 wins from 4 recent encounters but also showcases superior expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics. Their formidable home record—winning 58% of their matches—further boosts their prospects.

While Górnik's unbeaten streak in the last five league outings reinforces their form advantage, it's their defensive solidity that stands out. Conceding just 1.0 xGA per match hints at a disciplined backline, contrasting sharply with Piast's 1.8. This discrepancy points to a likely scenario where the hosts can control the field, leveraging their possession-oriented style against the visitors' physical approach.

The model suggests a slight lean towards the home team in terms of potential scorelines, with 1-1 and 2-1 as the most probable outcomes. Despite the 1-1 draw being the top pick, the 2-1 possibility reflects Górnik's ability to edge out close contests. Given the 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, the game should be lively, though not necessarily high-scoring.

Piast's struggle for points and xPoints alike underscores their underdog status here. Their balanced yet physical style may disrupt Górnik's rhythm, but it's unlikely to overhaul the hosts' tactical and statistical edge. Their meager 17% win probability reflects the uphill battle they face.

Górnik Zabrze

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #2xT #10xP/match #4Points #1

Key players

Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
Maksym KhlanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.11
Lukáš SadílekRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Piast Gliwice

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #17xP/match #16Points #8

Key players

Hugo Claudio Vallejo AvilésLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Leandro SancaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
Ivan Correia Posser LimaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Górnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice

Predicted score matrix

Piast Gliwice →

Górnik Zabrze →

0–04.8%

0–15.2%

0–23.3%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.2%

1–110.6%

1–26.2%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–05.1%

3–16.1%

3–23.7%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.7%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,89–1,21

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Górnik Zabrze to win58%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Górnik Zabrze to win58%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Paulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Paulo Guilherme Gonçalves Bernardo to score26%
Oskar Leśniak to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Górnik Zabrze 3Draw 0Piast Gliwice 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

Key facts

Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Gornik Zabrze win 58% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Górnik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Górnik Zabrze (16–8)

Piast Gliwice (16–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Górnik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Górnik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Górnik Zabrze	Piast Gliwice
Points	22	13
xPoints	15.1	9.8
xG per match	1.5	1.2
xGA per match	1	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.3

Playing style	Górnik Zabrze	Piast Gliwice
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.55	0.5
xT per match	1.1	0.79
xTA per match	0.97	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.32
Entries into the box per match	16	11
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.74
Passes per match	336	408
Passes against per match	359	290
Switches of play per match	21.4	23.4
Long balls per match	28	24

Set pieces	Górnik Zabrze	Piast Gliwice
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.05
Corners per match	5.3	4.8
Corners against per match	3.9	6.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.67

Other	Górnik Zabrze	Piast Gliwice
Throw-in control	0.71	0.78

The goalkeepers	Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze)	Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice)
Saves	21	33
Save %	72%	69%
xG prevented	36%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Górnik Zabrze

Fixtures, form & tips

Piast Gliwice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice according to our model?

The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Górnik Zabrze 58%, draw 25%, Piast Gliwice 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?

The model expects 1.89 goals (xG) for Górnik Zabrze and 1.21 for Piast Gliwice, 3.10 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Górnik Zabrze or draw (1X) 83%, Piast Gliwice or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.