Ekstraklasa11°2,1 mm14 km/h

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    KS CracoviaKS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Legia WarszawaLegia WarszawaBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Legia Warszawa (48%)

    KS Cracovia vs Legia Warszawa · Ekstraklasa

    1 · KS Cracovia 26%X 26%48% Legia Warszawa · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for KS Cracovia vs Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 17 October 2026): KS Cracovia win 26%, draw 26%, Legia Warszawa win 48%. Expected goals (xG): KS Cracovia 1.12, Legia Warszawa 1.57. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: KS Cracovia or draw 52%, Legia Warszawa or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: KS Cracovia – Legia Warszawa

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Legia Warszawa's remarkable 13-match unbeaten run in the league is the backdrop for their visit to a struggling Cracovia side. While the head-to-head record is split evenly with two wins each in their last four encounters, this small sample does little to overshadow the stark contrast in their current forms. Cracovia have hit a rough patch, losing their last four matches, whereas Legia's consistency has seen them find the net in 13 consecutive games.

    Cracovia's counter-attacking approach, reliant on crosses, will have to contend with Legia's well-rounded and physical style. It's a classic clash of tactical philosophies, yet the visitors' superior league standing — 19 points compared to the hosts' 8 — and their xPoints advantage suggest they have the upper hand. The expected goals (xG) model highlights a slight edge for Legia, forecasting a challenging evening for the home side's defense, which has been conceding at a rate of 1.5 goals per match.

    Despite Cracovia's potential to disrupt with their counter-attacking play, the likelihood of both teams scoring is pegged at 54%. This aligns with the most probable scoreline of 1-1, but the model's lean towards a Legia victory — with 0-1 and 1-2 as likely outcomes — hints at their capacity to capitalize on Cracovia's vulnerabilities and extend their unbeaten run.

    Given their form and scoring streak, this assessment leans towards a narrow win for the visitors, with a suggested final scoreline of 1-2. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits on a knife-edge, but the inclination is towards a slightly lower-scoring affair, considering the pressure on Cracovia to shore up their defense.

    KS CracoviaKS Cracovia
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #4xP/match #10Points #13
    Key players
    • Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.32
    • Amir Al AmmariCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
    • Dijon KameriCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.02
    Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
    Form DDWDW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #13xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Mileta RajovicFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
    • Łukasz ZjawińskiFxG 0.40 · xT 0.03
    • Damian Dawid SzymańskiCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: KS Cracovia – Legia Warszawa

    Predicted score matrix

    Legia Warszawa →
    KS Cracovia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–110.4%
    0–28.4%
    0–34.4%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–07.3%
    1–112.3%
    1–29.4%
    1–34.9%
    1–4+2.7%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–16.7%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–01.6%
    3–12.5%
    3–21.9%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,12–1,57
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    –
    Over 2,550%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Legia Warszawa to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Legia Warszawa to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Mileta Rajović to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Mileta Rajović to score38%
    • Mateusz Andrzej Klich to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    KS Cracovia 2Draw 0Legia Warszawa 2
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • MKS Cracovia have lost 4 in a row.
    • Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
    • Legia Warszawa have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    KS Cracovia
    Legia Warszawa
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    KS Cracovia (9–14)
    Legia Warszawa (19–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    KS Cracovia
    Brahim Traoré: 195 passningar, xT 0.14TraoréAmir Al Ammari: 175 passningar, xT 0.72AmmariMateusz Andrzej Klich: 142 passningar, xT 1.04KlichAjdin Hasic: 132 passningar, xT 1.11HasicSebastian Madejski: 118 passningar, xT 0.12MadejskiMauro Perkovic: 115 passningar, xT 0.3PerkovicOtar Kakabadze: 113 passningar, xT 0.15KakabadzeGustav Henriksson: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HenrikssonDominik Pila: 68 passningar, xT 0.15PilaSayfallah Ltaief: 67 passningar, xT 0.98LtaiefDominik Baumgartner: 60 passningar, xT 0Baumgartner
    Legia Warszawa
    Rafal Augustyniak: 240 passningar, xT 0.06AugustyniakBartosz Kapustka: 203 passningar, xT 0.17KapustkaKamil Dawid Piątkowski: 196 passningar, xT 0.93PiątkowskiRobert Edward JR. Deziel Junior: 150 passningar, xT 0.14JuniorOttó Hindrich: 113 passningar, xT 0.13HindrichHenrique Miguel Sousa Arreiol: 113 passningar, xT 0.13ArreiolWojciech Urbanski: 108 passningar, xT 0.28UrbanskiRúben Gonçalo Silva Nascimento Vinagre: 106 passningar, xT 0.29VinagrePawel Wszolek: 89 passningar, xT 0.5WszolekMichal Ševčík: 77 passningar, xT 0.59ŠevčíkZoran Arsenic: 67 passningar, xT 0.52Arsenic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    KS Cracovia
    Brahim Traoré: 195 passningar, xT 0.14TraoréAmir Al Ammari: 175 passningar, xT 0.72AmmariMateusz Andrzej Klich: 142 passningar, xT 1.04KlichAjdin Hasic: 132 passningar, xT 1.11HasicSebastian Madejski: 118 passningar, xT 0.12MadejskiMauro Perkovic: 115 passningar, xT 0.3PerkovicOtar Kakabadze: 113 passningar, xT 0.15KakabadzeGustav Henriksson: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HenrikssonDominik Pila: 68 passningar, xT 0.15PilaSayfallah Ltaief: 67 passningar, xT 0.98LtaiefDominik Baumgartner: 60 passningar, xT 0Baumgartner
    Legia Warszawa
    Rafal Augustyniak: 240 passningar, xT 0.06AugustyniakBartosz Kapustka: 203 passningar, xT 0.17KapustkaKamil Dawid Piątkowski: 196 passningar, xT 0.93PiątkowskiRobert Edward JR. Deziel Junior: 150 passningar, xT 0.14JuniorOttó Hindrich: 113 passningar, xT 0.13HindrichHenrique Miguel Sousa Arreiol: 113 passningar, xT 0.13ArreiolWojciech Urbanski: 108 passningar, xT 0.28UrbanskiRúben Gonçalo Silva Nascimento Vinagre: 106 passningar, xT 0.29VinagrePawel Wszolek: 89 passningar, xT 0.5WszolekMichal Ševčík: 77 passningar, xT 0.59ŠevčíkZoran Arsenic: 67 passningar, xT 0.52Arsenic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKS CracoviaLegia Warszawa
    Points819
    xPoints11.914.4
    xG per match1.61.8
    xGA per match1.51.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.2
    Playing styleKS CracoviaLegia Warszawa
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.460.53
    xT per match1.31
    xTA per match1.10.93
    Won balls, offensive half2730
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.280.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against1512
    Pass completion %0.740.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.7
    Passes per match311335
    Passes against per match348343
    Switches of play per match17.421.3
    Long balls per match2426
    Set piecesKS CracoviaLegia Warszawa
    xG from free kicks0.050.12
    Corners per match5.94.5
    Corners against per match5.73.8
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.490.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.63
    OtherKS CracoviaLegia Warszawa
    Throw-in control0.760.73
    The goalkeepersSebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)Ottó Hindrich (Legia Warszawa)
    Saves2926
    Save %69%79%
    xG prevented25%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    KS Cracovia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Legia Warszawa
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins KS Cracovia vs Legia Warszawa according to our model?

    The model gives Legia Warszawa a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: KS Cracovia 26%, draw 26%, Legia Warszawa 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in KS Cracovia vs Legia Warszawa?

    The model expects 1.12 goals (xG) for KS Cracovia and 1.57 for Legia Warszawa, 2.68 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    KS Cracovia or draw (1X) 52%, Legia Warszawa or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.