01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ekstraklasa11°1,1 mm19 km/h
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Zagłębie LubinLow block & directvs
Jagiellonia BiałystokPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Jagiellonia Białystok (36%)Soft draw
Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok · Ekstraklasa
1 · Zagłębie Lubin 35%X 29%36% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2
35%
29%
36%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok (Ekstraklasa, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Zagłębie Lubin win 35%, draw 29%, Jagiellonia Białystok win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Zagłębie Lubin 1.38, Jagiellonia Białystok 1.35. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Zagłębie Lubin or draw 64%, Jagiellonia Białystok or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Zagłębie Lubin – Jagiellonia Białystok
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A razor-thin margin is evident in the matchup between Zagłębie Lubin and Jagiellonia Białystok. The model gives the visitors a slight edge with a 36% win probability, just nudging ahead of Lubin's 35%. While Zagłębie's direct play contrasts with Jagiellonia's possession-focused strategy, the clash is expected to be closely contested, with expected goals nearly balanced at 1.38 for the hosts and 1.35 for the visitors.
Though the historical head-to-head is a small sample of just four games (Lubin with a minor deficit), it's the season form and underlying numbers that present a clearer picture. Zagłębie holds an advantage in both points (15 to Jagiellonia's 12) and xPoints (13.7 vs. 9.3), highlighting their efficiency. However, Jagiellonia's higher xG per match at 1.5 suggests they can create better chances, which could be crucial if they manage to dictate possession.
The most likely scorelines point to a tight affair, with 1-1 at 13% leading the pack. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 51% and both teams to score at 56%, the game leans slightly toward goals but remains finely poised, with Jagiellonia holding a slight model advantage.
Zagłębie LubinForm DDWWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #5xT #14xP/match #6Points #7
Key players
- Marcel RegulaRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.11
- Michalis KosidisLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
- Mateusz GrzybekRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Jagiellonia BiałystokForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #9
Key players
- Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
- Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Norbert WojtuszekRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Zagłębie Lubin – Jagiellonia Białystok
Predicted score matrix
Jagiellonia Białystok →
Zagłębie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–18.5%
0–25.9%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.7%
1–112.5%
1–28.2%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.4%
2–25.6%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.9%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,38–1,35
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
–
Over 2,551%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Nik Prelec to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Nik Prelec to score24%
- Bernardo Maria Morais Cardoso Vital to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesZagłębie Lubin 1Draw 1Jagiellonia Białystok 2
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Zagłębie Lubin
Jagiellonia Białystok
Zagłębie Lubin (11–10)
Jagiellonia Białystok (12–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Zagłębie Lubin
Jagiellonia Białystok
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Zagłębie Lubin
Jagiellonia Białystok
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 12 |
| xPoints | 13.7 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 257 | 405 |
| Passes against per match | 358 | 285 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.9 | 23.6 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Other | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Zlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin) | Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 23 |
| Save % | 77% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?
The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zagłębie Lubin 35%, draw 29%, Jagiellonia Białystok 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model expects 1.38 goals (xG) for Zagłębie Lubin and 1.35 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 2.73 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Zagłębie Lubin or draw (1X) 64%, Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.