Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction: Away win 38% (16 Oct 2026)

Ekstraklasa16 October 202612°5 km/h

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Wieczysta KrakówPossession & high press

Raków CzęstochowaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Raków Częstochowa (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.30 (+2 %)

1 · Wieczysta Kraków 38%X 24%38% Raków Częstochowa · 2

38%

24%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 16 October 2026): Wieczysta Kraków win 38%, draw 24%, Raków Częstochowa win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Wieczysta Kraków 1.52, Raków Częstochowa 1.88. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Wieczysta Kraków or draw 62%, Raków Częstochowa or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa

Marcus Johansson · 9 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The model gives both Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance of victory, underscoring the balanced nature of this clash. However, the model still leans towards the visitors, perhaps owing to their efficient counter-attacking and cross-heavy approach, which could exploit the hosts' high press. Wieczysta's penchant for possession could lead to vulnerabilities if Raków capitalizes quickly on turnovers.

Despite the evenly split probabilities, Wieczysta appears to have a slight edge in terms of both traditional points and xPoints, boasting 5 points to Raków's 3 and an xPoints tally of 8.6 against 7.4. Defensively, the hosts also seem more solid on paper, with an xGA of 1.8 compared to the visitors' more porous 2.4. However, Raków's knack for generating chances within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.25 xG) could tilt the match in their favor against Wieczysta's 0.24.

The goal probabilities suggest a high-scoring encounter, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% likelihood of both teams finding the net. A plausible scoreline might be 1-2, aligning with the visitors' counter-attacking strengths. For punters, the over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.80 with Bet365 offers potential value.

Wieczysta Kraków

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #9xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

Tobias ChristensenFxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
Karol FilaRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.19
Lisandro Pedro Varela SemedoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.11

Raków Częstochowa

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #5xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Patryk MakuchFxG 0.52 · xT 0.11
Mahir EmreliCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.07
Fran TudorCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa

Predicted score matrix

Raków Częstochowa →

Wieczysta Kraków →

0–03.6%

0–16.0%

0–25.9%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.6%

1–04.8%

1–19.8%

1–28.9%

1–35.6%

1–4+4.0%

2–03.9%

2–17.3%

2–26.8%

2–34.3%

2–4+3.1%

3–02.0%

3–13.7%

3–23.5%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.9%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,52–1,88

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.35

Over 2,566%

@1.53EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Mahir Emreli to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Tobias Christensen to score28%
Oskar Repka to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.544% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Over 3.544% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
Over 3.544% probability@2.30NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wieczysta Kraków	X	2 · Raków Częstochowa
Betsafe	2.35	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.62
LeoVegas	2.35	3.60	2.60
Nordicbet	2.35	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.62

Odds updated 9 Oct, 18:38

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wieczysta Kraków

Raków Częstochowa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wieczysta Kraków (11–17)

Raków Częstochowa (12–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wieczysta Kraków

Raków Częstochowa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wieczysta Kraków

Raków Częstochowa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wieczysta Kraków	Raków Częstochowa
Points	5	3
xPoints	8.6	7.4
xG per match	1.5	1.5
xGA per match	1.8	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.52	0.15

Playing style	Wieczysta Kraków	Raków Częstochowa
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.64	0.53
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	22	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	16	15
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.73
Passes per match	432	390
Passes against per match	317	300
Switches of play per match	29.5	27.8
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Wieczysta Kraków	Raków Częstochowa
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	4.8	4.8
Corners against per match	5.9	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.7

Other	Wieczysta Kraków	Raków Częstochowa
Throw-in control	0.78	0.72

The goalkeepers	Antoni Mikulko (Wieczysta Kraków)	Kacper Trelowski (Raków Częstochowa)
Saves	14	33
Save %	58%	64%
xG prevented	56%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wieczysta Kraków

Fixtures, form & tips

Raków Częstochowa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa according to our model?

The model gives Raków Częstochowa a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wieczysta Kraków 38%, draw 24%, Raków Częstochowa 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa?

The model expects 1.52 goals (xG) for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.88 for Raków Częstochowa, 3.40 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Wieczysta Kraków or draw (1X) 62%, Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.