01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Estrela da Amadora to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Primeira LigaEstádio José Gomes, Amadora15°14 km/h
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Estrela da AmadoraPossession & high pressvs
Casa PiaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Estrela da Amadora (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.65 (+7 %)
Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
1 · Estrela da Amadora 49%X 29%22% Casa Pia · 2
49%
29%
22%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Estrela da Amadora win 49%, draw 29%, Casa Pia win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Estrela da Amadora 1.67, Casa Pia 1.09. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Estrela da Amadora or draw 78%, Casa Pia or draw 51%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Estrela da Amadora – Casa Pia
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The spotlight is on Estrela da Amadora's attacking dynamics as they host Casa Pia, where the home side's possession-heavy and high-pressing style looks set to challenge Casa Pia's defensive low block. With Estrela's expected goals sitting at 1.67 compared to Casa Pia's 1.09, the hosts appear to have the upper hand. This offensive edge, coupled with a higher xG per match of 1.2 against Casa Pia's 0.66, underlines a persistent attacking threat that could be the decisive factor.
Estrela's home advantage is magnified by their current form, which sees them with 10 points in contrast to Casa Pia's 4. The recent head-to-head record, albeit based on a small sample of four matches, is split evenly with two wins apiece. However, both teams are aware that historical encounters weigh less than their current trajectories and tactical matchups.
The most likely scenarios predicted are a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Estrela, each at a 10-12% probability. This suggests a closely contested affair, but one where the hosts' offensive prowess could tip the balance. Despite the potential for a low-scoring game, the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 52%, driven by Estrela's attacking capability and Casa Pia's vulnerability at the back, evidenced by their 1.7 xGA per match.
For bettors seeking value, the draw offers an enticing proposition. The model sees a 29% chance of a stalemate, with odds of 3.65 at LeoVegas providing a 7% edge, and slightly lesser but still profitable edges with Betsafe and Nordicbet at odds of 3.6. While the data leans towards a narrowly fought Estrela victory, the draw's value cannot be ignored for those looking to maximize their betting returns.
Estrela da AmadoraForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #4xP/match #10Points #10
Key players
- Abraham MarcusRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.18
- Luan Patrick WiedthäuperCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Stefan LekovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Casa PiaForm LDLWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #14xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- David SousaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
- Silvi Clua OyaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Estrela da Amadora – Casa Pia
Predicted score matrix
Casa Pia →
Estrela da Amadora →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–16.6%
0–23.8%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.2%
1–111.9%
1–26.3%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.6%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.9%
3–15.4%
3–22.9%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.3%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,67–1,09
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.85
Over 2,552%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Estrela da Amadora to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Leandro Antonetti López to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Leandro Antonetti López to score30%
- Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.65LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Estrela da Amadora | X | 2 · Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 4.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | EV+ 7% 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 4.25 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37
Odds movement
1+4 %
56 %51 %
1.73 → 1.80
X-1 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.65
2-7 %
23 %18 %
4.75 → 4.40
Over 2,5-1 %
51 %46 %
1.92 → 1.90
LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesEstrela da Amadora 2Draw 0Casa Pia 2
Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Estrela da Amadora
Casa Pia
Estrela da Amadora (14–15)
Casa Pia (3–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Estrela da Amadora
Casa Pia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Estrela da Amadora
Casa Pia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Estrela da Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 4 |
| xPoints | 10 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.66 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | Estrela da Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 357 | 271 |
| Passes against per match | 339 | 370 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.2 | 22.6 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Estrela da Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 6.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.48 |
| Other | Estrela da Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Leonardo Matias Baiersdorf Linck (Estrela da Amadora) | Ivan Mandić (Casa Pia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 13 |
| Save % | 62% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia according to our model?
The model gives Estrela da Amadora a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estrela da Amadora 49%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Estrela da Amadora and 1.09 for Casa Pia, 2.76 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Estrela da Amadora or draw (1X) 78%, Casa Pia or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.