Alverca vs Arouca Prediction: Home win 40% (24 Oct 2026)

Primeira Liga24 October 2026

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AlvercaPossession control

AroucaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Alverca (40%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.15 (+7 %)

1 · Alverca 40%X 29%31% Arouca · 2

40%

29%

31%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Alverca vs Arouca (Primeira Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Alverca win 40%, draw 29%, Arouca win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Alverca 1.43, Arouca 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Alverca or draw 69%, Arouca or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Alverca – Arouca

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

With a small head-to-head sample of just two matches since 2023, Alverca and Arouca each have a victory to their name. This split doesn't provide a definitive edge, making recent form and expected goals more telling. The hosts, Alverca, come into this clash riding a wave of momentum with three consecutive wins, a sign of growing confidence and cohesion within the squad. Meanwhile, Arouca's balanced and physical style will aim to disrupt this rhythm, especially as they hold a slight points advantage in the league standings.

When diving into the numbers, Alverca's control-oriented approach generates an expected 1.5 goals per match, which matches perfectly against Arouca's xGA of 1.2. On the flip side, Arouca's 1.1 xG indicates a challenge in breaking down Alverca's possession-heavy play, yet their physicality could pose surprises. Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, with Alverca conceding the same xGA of 1.5 as their xG, suggesting potential opportunities for Arouca to exploit.

With the model pointing to a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to find the net, this matchup hints at a dynamic contest. The most probable scorelines lean towards a 1-1 draw, followed by slim margins like 1-2 or 2-1. Alverca's slight model-supported lean and better xPoints suggest they could edge this, but the narrow probability margin keeps the door open for Arouca.

In a game rich with potential outcomes, the sharpest betting angle lies in the over 3.5 goals market. With a 7% edge over the bookmakers at odds of 3.15 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, and considering the attacking potential and defensive gaps of both teams, this bet offers value. Despite the model's overall lean towards a lower scoring game, the odds make over 3.5 an enticing, statistically-backed punt.

Alverca

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #7xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Francisco Jorge Tavares OliveiraRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Diogo SpencerRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.37
Lucas Figueiredo dos SantosCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13

Arouca

Form WDLDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #5

Key players

Taichi FukuiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Jose FontanCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Ivan BarberoFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Alverca – Arouca

Predicted score matrix

Arouca →

Alverca →

0–05.6%

0–17.7%

0–26.0%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.6%

1–07.3%

1–111.8%

1–28.6%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.4%

2–18.2%

2–26.2%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.6%

3–13.9%

3–22.9%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,43–1,50

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.91

Over 2,556%

@1.85EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Alverca or draw (1X)61%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Alverca or draw (1X)61%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa to score28%
Rayan Lucas Marques de Souza to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.534% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Over 3.534% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
Over 2.556% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Alverca	X	2 · Arouca
Betsafe	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	EV+ 3% 3.35
LeoVegas	2.20	3.30	EV+ 1% 3.30
Nordicbet	2.08	EV+ 0% 3.40	EV+ 3% 3.35

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

46 %41 %

2.18 → 2.20

X-1 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.30

2-1 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.30

Over 2,5-2 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.83

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Alverca 1Draw 0Arouca 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

Key facts

Futebol Clube De Alverca come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alverca

Arouca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alverca (13–12)

Arouca (11–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alverca

Arouca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alverca

Arouca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alverca	Arouca
Points	11	14
xPoints	12	10.9
xG per match	1.5	1.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.33

Playing style	Alverca	Arouca
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.27
Field tilt	0.38	0.48
xT per match	0.89	0.85
xTA per match	0.82	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	10	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.75
Passes per match	286	382
Passes against per match	421	396
Switches of play per match	20.9	25.9
Long balls per match	27	30

Set pieces	Alverca	Arouca
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	4.8	3.1
Corners against per match	3.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.7

Other	Alverca	Arouca
Throw-in control	0.67	0.76

The goalkeepers	Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira (Alverca)	Ignacio de Arruabarrena Fernández (Arouca)
Saves	25	31
Save %	69%	82%
xG prevented	34%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alverca

Fixtures, form & tips

Arouca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alverca vs Arouca according to our model?

The model gives Alverca a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alverca 40%, draw 29%, Arouca 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Arouca?

The model expects 1.43 goals (xG) for Alverca and 1.50 for Arouca, 2.94 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Alverca or draw (1X) 69%, Arouca or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.