01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Estoril Praia to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Primeira LigaEstádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril17°16 km/h
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Estoril PraiaPossession & high pressvs
MoreirenseLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Estoril Praia (47%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.60 (+3 %)
Estoril Praia vs Moreirense · Primeira Liga
1 · Estoril Praia 47%X 29%24% Moreirense · 2
47%
29%
24%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Estoril Praia vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Estoril Praia win 47%, draw 29%, Moreirense win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Estoril Praia 1.49, Moreirense 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Estoril Praia or draw 76%, Moreirense or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Estoril Praia – Moreirense
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Estoril Praia, despite their recent form woes, are given a 47% chance of winning against Moreirense, who have collected more points this season. That may seem surprising at first glance, considering the hosts have lost three consecutive matches. However, looking deeper into the numbers, Estoril's expected goals (xG) and possession-focused style suggest they have been somewhat unlucky. They're creating more than they concede, with an xG of 0.87 per match and xGA of 1.5, both slightly better than Moreirense's figures.
The visitors, on the other hand, favour a defensive setup, opting for a low block and direct counters. While this has yielded them more points (8 compared to Estoril's 2), their xPoints (9.1) indicate a reliance on efficiency over creativity. Their head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample of four matches, shows they've had the upper hand with one win and three draws. But given Estoril's underlying numbers, the hosts are more due for a result this time.
The most probable scorelines — 1-1 and 1-0 — reflect a tight game, supported by a balanced expected goals total: Estoril at 1.49 and Moreirense at 1.04. With only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a balanced 50% for both teams to score, the match seems likely to be a low-scoring affair. The under 2.5 goals market, especially at odds of 1.952 with LeoVegas, presents a valuable angle with a model edge of 5%.
For those looking at value, the under 2.5 goals market across multiple bookmakers — including LeoVegas at 1.952 — is where the numbers align with opportunity. The model's systematic lean suggests a 54% likelihood for this outcome, providing you an edge to exploit.
Estoril PraiaForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #11xP/match #13Points #18
Key players
- Jordan HolsgroveCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
- Joao CarvalhoLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
- Yanis Redha BegraouiFxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
MoreirenseForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Nile Omari Mckenzie JohnCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Manuel Ascencao Bebiano MendoncaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Dinis PintoRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Estoril Praia – Moreirense
Predicted score matrix
Moreirense →
Estoril Praia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–18.0%
0–24.3%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.5%
1–112.7%
1–26.5%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.2%
2–24.8%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.5%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,49–1,04
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.88EV+1%
Over 2,546%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Estoril Praia to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Fabrício Garcia Andrade to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Fabrício Garcia Andrade to score22%
- Guilherme Liberato Tomas de Aquino to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Estoril Praia | X | 2 · Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | EV+ 3% 3.60 | 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.98 | EV+ 0% 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | EV+ 3% 3.60 | 3.70 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Moreirense win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 4.10 to 3.70 (−10%).
1+8 %
52 %47 %
1.83 → 1.98
X-7 %
29 %24 %
3.75 → 3.50
2-10 %
27 %22 %
4.10 → 3.70
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %49 %
1.80 → 1.88
LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesEstoril Praia 0Draw 3Moreirense 1
Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.
Key facts
- Grupo Desportivo Estoril Praia have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Estoril Praia
Moreirense
Estoril Praia (4–12)
Moreirense (8–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Estoril Praia
Moreirense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Estoril Praia
Moreirense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 8 |
| xPoints | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| xG per match | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 0.54 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 5 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 249 |
| Passes against per match | 412 | 493 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.3 | 17 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 2.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| Other | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Joel Robles (Estoril Praia) | Andre Ferreira (Moreirense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 23 |
| Save % | 60% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Estrela da Amadora – Casa Pia24 October 2026
- Nacional – Braga25 October 2026
- Sporting CP – Academico Viseu25 October 2026
- Rio Ave – Famalicão25 October 2026
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Estoril Praia vs Moreirense according to our model?
The model gives Estoril Praia a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Estoril Praia 47%, draw 29%, Moreirense 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Estoril Praia vs Moreirense?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Estoril Praia and 1.04 for Moreirense, 2.53 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Estoril Praia or draw (1X) 76%, Moreirense or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.