Dundee United vs Aberdeen Prediction: Home win 50% (24 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership24 October 2026 16:00 CESTTannadice Park, Dundee7°12,1 mm43 km/h

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Dundee UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses

AberdeenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Dundee United (50%)

1 · Dundee United 50%X 25%25% Aberdeen · 2

50%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dundee United vs Aberdeen (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Dundee United win 50%, draw 25%, Aberdeen win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Dundee United 1.81, Aberdeen 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Dundee United or draw 75%, Aberdeen or draw 50%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Dundee United – Aberdeen

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fifty percent is the figure that jumps off the page: the model sees Dundee United as a clear favorite at home against Aberdeen. The hosts have a slight edge in both expected goals and actual points this season, suggesting their likelihood of success might be underestimated by the visitors. The most probable outcomes, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 as top picks, hint at a closely contested game likely to swing Dundee United's way.

Both teams mirror each other in style, favoring counterattacks and crosses. This tactical symmetry suggests that whoever controls the midfield transitions could dictate the match. Despite Aberdeen’s decent defensive numbers, Dundee United's higher expected goals tally indicates they might be more effective in breaking down defenses. The visitors' lower attacking output, evident from their lower xG per match, might just tilt the encounter in the hosts’ favor.

The head-to-head record since 2023 shows a balanced 3 wins for Dundee United, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which is broadly consistent with the model's probabilities and expected goals data. With Dundee United offering a 7% edge as home winners at odds of 2.12 on Betsafe, LeoVegas, and NordicBet, this presents potential value for punters looking to capitalize on the model's insight.

Dundee United

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #2xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Zidane Aamar IqbalCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Lyall CameronCAMxG 0.22 · xT 0.30
Dylan TaitCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17

Aberdeen

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #9xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Ayoub MoulouaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.06
Mats KnoesterCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Dundee United – Aberdeen

Predicted score matrix

Aberdeen →

Dundee United →

0–05.4%

0–15.6%

0–23.5%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.9%

1–111.1%

1–26.3%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.1%

3–15.9%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,81–1,16

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.02

Over 2,557%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Dundee United to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Dundee United to win50%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jesse Carmichael Randall to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jesse Carmichael Randall to score35%
Afeez Aremu Olalekan to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Dundee United50% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
1 · Dundee United50% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
1 · Dundee United50% probability@2.12NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dundee United	X	2 · Aberdeen
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.12	3.40	3.20
LeoVegas	EV+ 7% 2.12	3.35	3.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.12	3.40	3.20

Odds updated 21 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

46 %41 %

2.05 → 2.12

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.35

20 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.10

Over 2,5+4 %

57 %52 %

1.64 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Dundee United 3Draw 3Aberdeen 2

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 1,9)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dundee United

Aberdeen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dundee United (11–12)

Aberdeen (10–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dundee United

Aberdeen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dundee United

Aberdeen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dundee United	Aberdeen
Points	12	11
xPoints	11.6	11.1
xG per match	1.7	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.24

Playing style	Dundee United	Aberdeen
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.46	0.38
xT per match	1.4	0.84
xTA per match	1.2	1
Won balls, offensive half	25	27
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.73	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	346	312
Passes against per match	342	395
Switches of play per match	34.3	26.7
Long balls per match	35	33

Set pieces	Dundee United	Aberdeen
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.2
Corners per match	6.4	5.7
Corners against per match	5.7	6.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.24
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.46

Other	Dundee United	Aberdeen
Throw-in control	0.76	0.77

The goalkeepers	Jack Walton (Dundee United)	Marius Müller (Aberdeen)
Saves	31	37
Save %	72%	79%
xG prevented	54%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dundee United

Fixtures, form & tips

Aberdeen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dundee United vs Aberdeen according to our model?

The model gives Dundee United a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee United 50%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Dundee United vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 1.81 goals (xG) for Dundee United and 1.16 for Aberdeen, 2.97 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Dundee United or draw (1X) 75%, Aberdeen or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.