St. Mirren vs Dundee FC Prediction: Home win 37% (24 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership24 October 2026 16:00 CESTSt Mirren Park, Paisley8°28,7 mm44 km/h

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St. MirrenPossession control

Dundee FCLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · St. Mirren (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+5 %)

1 · St. Mirren 37%X 28%35% Dundee FC · 2

37%

28%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Mirren vs Dundee FC (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 24 October 2026): St. Mirren win 37%, draw 28%, Dundee FC win 35%. Expected goals (xG): St. Mirren 1.36, Dundee FC 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: St. Mirren or draw 65%, Dundee FC or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: St. Mirren – Dundee FC

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Dundee's historical dominance in this fixture, boasting four wins in their last seven meetings with St. Mirren, adds an intriguing layer to this matchup. Despite this edge, both teams are relatively evenly matched according to the model probabilities: Mirren at 37% and Dundee at 35%. The slight model lean towards the hosts is offset by their dire form, having lost five consecutive games.

The expected goals numbers paint a balanced picture, with Dundee's 1.49 narrowly edging St. Mirren's 1.36. However, the anticipated rain could inhibit goal-scoring opportunities, adding a defensive character to the match. Dundee's ability to find the net in eight straight league encounters strengthens their position, contrasting St. Mirren's struggle to convert possession into results.

Under 2.5 goals emerges as the sharpest betting angle, with value found across multiple sportsbooks. Betsafe, Nordicbet, and LeoVegas all offer enticing odds of 2.32 and 2.3, respectively, against a modelled probability of 46%. Despite the lean towards over 2.5 goals (54%), the weather conditions and tactical styles could suppress the scoreline. Expect a tight contest, possibly ending in a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline, aligning with the most probable outcomes forecasted.

St. Mirren

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #7xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Marcus Ebenezer FraserCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Ryan George CarrCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Declan JohnLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Dundee FC

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Ashley HayFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
Callum JonesCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Ethan Billy HamiltonCAMxG 0.06 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: St. Mirren – Dundee FC

Predicted score matrix

Dundee FC →

St. Mirren →

0–06.2%

0–18.3%

0–26.4%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.6%

1–07.6%

1–112.1%

1–28.7%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.4%

2–18.0%

2–25.9%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.4%

3–13.6%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,36–1,49

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.25EV+2%

Over 2,554%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance St. Mirren or draw (1X)60%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance St. Mirren or draw (1X)60%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Paul Nsio to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Paul Nsio to score20%
Callum Graham Jones to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.568% probability@1.52LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Mirren	X	2 · Dundee FC
Betsafe	2.15	3.60	EV+ 4% 2.95
LeoVegas	2.15	3.60	EV+ 2% 2.90
Nordicbet	2.15	3.60	EV+ 4% 2.95

Odds updated 21 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Dundee FC win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 3.45 to 2.95 (−14%).

1+6 %

49 %39 %

2.02 → 2.15

X+6 %

31 %21 %

3.40 → 3.60

2-14 %

35 %25 %

3.45 → 2.95

Over 2,5-5 %

63 %53 %

1.70 → 1.62

Nordicbet · 20 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

St. Mirren 1Draw 2Dundee FC 4

Goals: 5–10 (⌀ 2,1)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Dundee dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
St. Mirren have lost 5 in a row.
Dundee have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Mirren

Dundee FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Mirren (9–17)

Dundee FC (13–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

Dundee FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

Dundee FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Mirren	Dundee FC
Points	10	14
xPoints	10.4	12.7
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	1.9	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.23

Playing style	St. Mirren	Dundee FC
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.48	0.25
xT per match	1	0.61
xTA per match	1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.19
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	14	18
Pass completion %	0.76	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.65
Passes per match	369	251
Passes against per match	359	465
Switches of play per match	23.4	20.6
Long balls per match	31	28

Set pieces	St. Mirren	Dundee FC
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.08
Corners per match	4.4	4.8
Corners against per match	6.6	6.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.57

Other	St. Mirren	Dundee FC
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren)	Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC)
Saves	31	38
Save %	65%	79%
xG prevented	59%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Mirren

Fixtures, form & tips

Dundee FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Mirren vs Dundee FC according to our model?

The model gives St. Mirren a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 37%, draw 28%, Dundee FC 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in St. Mirren vs Dundee FC?

The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for St. Mirren and 1.49 for Dundee FC, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

St. Mirren or draw (1X) 65%, Dundee FC or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.