Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Prediction: Home win 46% (24 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership24 October 2026 16:00 CESTFalkirk Stadium, Falkirk8°18,2 mm45 km/h

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FalkirkPossession control

KilmarnockLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Falkirk (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.22 (+3 %)

1 · Falkirk 46%X 27%27% Kilmarnock · 2

46%

27%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Falkirk win 46%, draw 27%, Kilmarnock win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Falkirk 1.63, Kilmarnock 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Falkirk or draw 73%, Kilmarnock or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Falkirk – Kilmarnock

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Three wins in three encounters since 2023 paint a vivid picture: Falkirk has had Kilmarnock's number. While this head-to-head sample is small, it hints at a psychological edge for the hosts as they prepare for the clash. But numbers tell an intricate tale beyond mere history. Falkirk not only lead in points and expected points but also boast a superior expected goals tally per match. Despite a modest 1.1 xG per game, their defensive reliability against a Kilmarnock side with a leaky backline is notable. The visitors' 2.5 xGA per game suggests vulnerabilities that Falkirk's control-oriented approach could exploit effectively.

The model forecasts a 46% win probability for Falkirk, significantly higher than Kilmarnock's 27%, with the hosts eyeing a potential 1-0 or 2-1 victory. Expected goals of 1.63 for Falkirk against 1.19 for their opponents emphasize their attacking potential. The probability for both teams to score stands at 56%, yet the visitors' low defensive setup might struggle to contain Falkirk's possession play.

However, the over 2.5 goals probability at 53% is barely above even money, hinting at a game that could skew tactical rather than open. Given these dynamics, the under 2.5 goals market presents a compelling value. LeoVegas offers this at odds of 2.3, with a 7% edge according to the model's 47% probability.

While under 3.5 and 4.5 goals also present value, the under 2.5 option captures the sharper tension between Falkirk's ability to break down Kilmarnock's defense and the likelihood of a tightly controlled match. With all signs pointing to a Falkirk edge, a 1-0 scoreline seems plausible. The value on under 2.5 at LeoVegas stands out as the final note in this analysis, offering a strategic play for punters siding with a disciplined rather than explosive outcome.

Falkirk

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #12xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Brad SpencerCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Lewis NeilsonCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

Kilmarnock

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #11

Key players

Tom LoweryCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Greg KiltieRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Aaron TshibolaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Falkirk – Kilmarnock

Predicted score matrix

Kilmarnock →

Falkirk →

0–06.3%

0–16.8%

0–24.2%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.4%

1–111.9%

1–26.9%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.9%

2–19.4%

2–25.6%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.3%

3–15.1%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,63–1,19

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.22EV+3%

Over 2,553%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Falkirk to win46%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Falkirk to win46%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ethan Ross to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Ethan Ross to score17%
Aaron Tshibola to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
Under 3.569% probability@1.50LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Falkirk	X	2 · Kilmarnock
Betsafe	1.85	3.60	EV+ 0% 3.70
LeoVegas	1.83	3.70	3.65
Nordicbet	1.85	3.60	EV+ 0% 3.70

Odds updated 21 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

54 %49 %

1.80 → 1.85

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.60

2-6 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.70

Over 2,5-5 %

60 %55 %

1.70 → 1.62

Nordicbet · 12 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Falkirk 3Draw 0Kilmarnock 0

Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkirk

Kilmarnock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Falkirk (9–12)

Kilmarnock (10–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkirk

Kilmarnock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkirk

Kilmarnock

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkirk	Kilmarnock
Points	9	8
xPoints	11	8.1
xG per match	1.1	1
xGA per match	1.6	2.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.42

Playing style	Falkirk	Kilmarnock
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.48	0.4
xT per match	0.61	0.99
xTA per match	1.1	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	29	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	13
Entries into the box against	16	18
Pass completion %	0.72	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.65
Passes per match	320	311
Passes against per match	388	450
Switches of play per match	28	25.4
Long balls per match	37	33

Set pieces	Falkirk	Kilmarnock
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	4.3	4.7
Corners against per match	6.5	6.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.6

Other	Falkirk	Kilmarnock
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Scott Bain (Falkirk)	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)
Saves	40	26
Save %	77%	67%
xG prevented	61%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Falkirk

Fixtures, form & tips

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Falkirk vs Kilmarnock according to our model?

The model gives Falkirk a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkirk 46%, draw 27%, Kilmarnock 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

The model expects 1.63 goals (xG) for Falkirk and 1.19 for Kilmarnock, 2.82 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Falkirk or draw (1X) 73%, Kilmarnock or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.