Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction: Away win 48% (25 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership25 October 2026 15:00 CETFir Park, Motherwell7°10,7 mm48 km/h

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MotherwellPossession & high press

HeartsPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Hearts (48%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.50 (+2 %)

1 · Motherwell 29%X 23%48% Hearts · 2

29%

23%

48%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Motherwell vs Hearts (Scottish Premiership, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Motherwell win 29%, draw 23%, Hearts win 48%. Expected goals (xG): Motherwell 1.24, Hearts 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Motherwell or draw 52%, Hearts or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Motherwell – Hearts

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The historical context, while not definitive due to its small sample size, shows Hearts having a slight upper hand with three wins to Motherwell's one in their last eight meetings. Both sides enjoy playing with possession, but it's Hearts' ability to translate this into goals that could prove decisive. There's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, and a 57% chance both teams score, suggesting potential for goals despite the hosts' struggles.

Motherwell's recent form paints a picture of a team struggling to find its footing, having lost their last five matches, while Hearts have been consistently finding the back of the net, scoring in 17 straight league games. This contrast sets the stage for a match where the visitors are more likely to impose their style. The model leans towards a Hearts victory, with a 48% probability suggesting they have the upper hand.

In terms of expected goals, Hearts also edge Motherwell, with figures of 1.61 to 1.24. The visitors' approach of possession control might just exploit the vulnerabilities in Motherwell's high press. While the most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%, the odds slightly favor a narrow Hearts win, either 1-2 or 0-1, each sitting at 9%. The edge in both points and expected points further underscores Hearts' advantage.

For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market offers a modest edge with odds of 2.22 at Betsafe. But for the high-risk takers, a long shot on under 0.5 at odds 17.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a small edge, although such an outcome appears unlikely given the attacking trends.

Motherwell

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #5xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Emmanuel LongeloLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.27
Lukas FadingerCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Alexander LowryCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.08

Hearts

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Harry MilneLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
Jordi AltenaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Joshua McPakeLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Motherwell – Hearts

Predicted score matrix

Hearts →

Motherwell →

0–06.2%

0–19.0%

0–27.5%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.3%

1–06.9%

1–111.9%

1–29.3%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.5%

2–17.2%

2–25.8%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.8%

3–13.0%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,24–1,61

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.22EV+2%

Over 2,554%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hearts to win48%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hearts to win48%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Pierre Landry Kabore to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Alexander Lowry to score25%
Laurent Mendy to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.568% probability@1.50LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Motherwell	X	2 · Hearts
Bet365	3.05	3.60	EV+ 0% 2.10
Betsafe	3.15	3.45	EV+ 1% 2.12
LeoVegas	2.95	3.50	EV+ 1% 2.12
Nordicbet	3.15	3.45	EV+ 1% 2.12

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

10 %

31 %26 %

3.15 → 3.15

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.45

20 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 2.12

Over 2,5-5 %

59 %54 %

1.70 → 1.62

Nordicbet · 27 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Motherwell 1Draw 4Hearts 3

Goals: 8–12 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Hearts dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Motherwell Football Club have lost 5 in a row.
Hearts have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Motherwell

Hearts

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Motherwell (11–16)

Hearts (20–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Motherwell

Hearts

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Motherwell

Hearts

The teams in numbers

Performance	Motherwell	Hearts
Points	8	16
xPoints	10.5	14.6
xG per match	1.6	1.8
xGA per match	1.8	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.32

Playing style	Motherwell	Hearts
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.57	0.6
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	21	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	17	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.68
Passes per match	493	378
Passes against per match	361	312
Switches of play per match	29.9	39.9
Long balls per match	28	42

Set pieces	Motherwell	Hearts
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.08
Corners per match	4.9	6.8
Corners against per match	5.9	3.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.69

Other	Motherwell	Hearts
Throw-in control	0.82	0.78

The goalkeepers	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)	Beau Reus (Hearts)
Saves	35	13
Save %	69%	50%
xG prevented	52%	25%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Motherwell

Fixtures, form & tips

Hearts

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Motherwell vs Hearts according to our model?

The model gives Hearts a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motherwell 29%, draw 23%, Hearts 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Hearts?

The model expects 1.24 goals (xG) for Motherwell and 1.61 for Hearts, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Motherwell or draw (1X) 52%, Hearts or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.