Kilmarnock vs Celtic: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership9 August 2026 14:30 CESTRugby Park, Kilmarnock15°7,9 mm19 km/h

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KilmarnockBalanced & physical

1–5

CelticPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Celtic (68%)Best value by the model: 1 · Kilmarnock @ 8.50 (+7 %)

1 · Kilmarnock 13%X 20%68% Celtic · 2

13%

20%

68%

Analysis: Kilmarnock – Celtic

Oscar Nilsson · 7 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Celtic FC's domination in this fixture is stark. With a flawless record against Kilmarnock since 2023, winning all six encounters, the Bhoys come into this match riding an eight-game winning streak. The model gives them a 68% chance of victory, pointing to a likely Celtic FC win with a favored scoreline of 1-2. This head-to-head streak is significant, but the sample size is small, thus less meaningful than the current form and expected goals, where Celtic FC also holds a clear edge.

Kilmarnock's chances are slim, pegged by the model at a mere 13%. But football's unpredictability is its charm, and there's a sliver of value in Bet365's odds of 8.5 for a home win, offering a 7% edge over the model's probability. Despite Kilmarnock's physical and balanced style, which might unsettle teams, Celtic FC's possession-based, high-pressing approach has consistently outmaneuvered them.

Celtic FC's offensive firepower is underscored by their scoring in eight straight league matches, generating 2.7 xG per game compared to Kilmarnock's 0.85. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.9 xGA, which could buckle under Celtic FC's relentless press. The weather, with an expected 5.4 mm of rain, might dampen the goal count slightly, yet the match's historical average of 4.0 goals per meeting suggests an exciting, if challenging, evening for defenders.

The over 2.5 goals market leans heavily at 63%, but the real kicker lies in the under 3.5 goals bet with Pinnacle, offering a 3% edge at odds of 1.751. With a likely scoreline of 1-2, this bet provides a shrewd move for those wary of the weather's potential impact on goal-scoring. Yet, the match promises drama, and while Kilmarnock faces an uphill battle, value-seekers might still find solace in the draw at 5.25 with Bet365, a calculated risk in a fixture often ruled by the giants of Celtic FC.

Kilmarnock

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #7xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieFxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
Tom LoweryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.71 · xT 0.61
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.72 · xT 0.01

Final score

1 – 5

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Kilmarnock 13% · Draw 20% · Celtic 68%

Match prediction: Kilmarnock – Celtic

Predicted score matrix

Celtic →

Kilmarnock →

0–04.1%

0–18.1%

0–29.0%

0–36.5%

0–4+5.8%

1–04.0%

1–19.4%

1–29.9%

1–37.1%

1–4+6.3%

2–02.3%

2–15.0%

2–25.4%

2–33.9%

2–4+3.5%

3–00.8%

3–11.8%

3–22.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.3%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-19%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,10–2,16

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.75EV+1%

Over 2,563%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win68%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win68%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Hyun-Jun Yang to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Hyun-Jun Yang to score31%
Aaron Tshibola to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Kilmarnock13% probability@8.50Bet365EV+7%reference odds
X · Draw20% probability@5.36PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 3.559% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kilmarnock	X	2 · Celtic
Bet365	EV+ 7% 8.50	EV+ 4% 5.25	1.30
Pinnacle	7.15	EV+ 6% 5.36	1.40

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+9 %

16 %11 %

6.55 → 7.15

X+8 %

21 %16 %

4.97 → 5.36

2-1 %

70 %65 %

1.41 → 1.40

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Kilmarnock 0Draw 0Celtic 7

Goals: 5–25 (⌀ 4,3)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 7 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.3 goals per meeting on average.
Celtic FC come into this round on 9 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kilmarnock

Celtic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kilmarnock (4–9)

Celtic (6–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

Celtic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

Celtic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Points	0	6
xPoints	1	5
xG per match	0.9	4.5
xGA per match	4	0.81
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.01	1.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.83	0.04

Playing style	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.38	0.69
xT per match	0.79	2.5
xTA per match	1.9	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	17	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.31
Entries into the box per match	9	21
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.73	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.81
Passes per match	314	604
Passes against per match	531	282
Switches of play per match	21.2	31.2
Long balls per match	29	30

Set pieces	Kilmarnock	Celtic
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4	8.2
Corners against per match	6.4	4.6
xG per corner	0.06	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.1	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.44

Other	Kilmarnock	Celtic
Throw-in control	0.75	0.82

The goalkeepers	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)
Saves	13	7
Save %	62%	88%
xG prevented	44%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kilmarnock vs Celtic according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kilmarnock 13%, draw 20%, Celtic 68%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.