St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership8 August 2026 16:00 CESTSt Mirren Park, Paisley16°6,9 mm22 km/h

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St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crosses

1–0

St. JohnstonePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · St. Mirren (50%)

1 · St. Mirren 50%X 28%22% St. Johnstone · 2

50%

28%

22%

Analysis: St. Mirren – St. Johnstone

Anna Karlsson · 6 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

St. Mirren finds themselves in a promising position, boasting a 50% chance of victory against St. Johnstone's modest 22%. The numbers are telling; they suggest a tilt in favour of the home side, who have already won two of their three encounters since 2023. Despite St. Johnstone's high press and possession game, St. Mirren's effective counter-attacking strategy, especially their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.57), could be the key differentiator.

St. Mirren's expected goals at 1.55 compared to St. Johnstone's 1.03 indicates that the hosts are likely to create more clear-cut chances. The most likely scoreline predictions lean slightly towards a tight contest with 1-1 (12%) edging out 1-0 (11%), yet the home advantage and recent head-to-head performance suggest St. Mirren could eke out a 1-0 or perhaps a 2-1 victory.

St. Johnstone's defensive metrics show vulnerability, with an xGA of 0.85, which is slightly better than St. Mirren's 0.71, suggesting that St. Mirren's defense could comfortably handle St. Johnstone's high press. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits almost at a coin flip with a 48% probability for over, but the under 2.5 at odds of 2.0 with Pinnacle shows a small edge, suggesting a cautious approach to goal-scoring in this fixture.

In terms of betting value, St. Mirren at home offers a compelling 16% edge with odds of 2.34 at Pinnacle, aligning neatly with the model's 50% win probability. For those leaning towards a conservative play, the under 2.5 goals bet at 2.0 odds represents a solid 5% edge. With defensive strengths on both sides and a potential for a tactical stalemate, the prudent punter might find the home win or under 2.5 goals the sharpest angles in this Scottish Premiership clash.

St. Mirren

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Eseosa SuleFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
Paul NsioCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

St. Johnstone

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Josh FowlerFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Mirren 50% · Draw 28% · St. Johnstone 22%

Match prediction: St. Mirren – St. Johnstone

Predicted score matrix

St. Johnstone →

St. Mirren →

0–07.9%

0–17.5%

0–24.0%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.4%

1–112.4%

1–26.2%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.4%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.7%

3–14.8%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,55–1,03

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.00EV+5%

Over 2,548%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Mirren to win50%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Mirren to win50%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Killian Phillips to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Killian Phillips to score18%
Zach Joseph Mitchell to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · St. Mirren50% probability@2.41PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@2.00PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Mirren	X	2 · St. Johnstone
Pinnacle	EV+ 19% 2.41	3.28	3.15

Odds updated 8 Aug, 04:52

Odds movement

1+7 %

44 %39 %

2.26 → 2.41

X-1 %

31 %26 %

3.33 → 3.28

2+2 %

33 %28 %

3.10 → 3.15

Over 2,5+1 %

54 %49 %

1.86 → 1.88

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

St. Mirren 3Draw 0St. Johnstone 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Mirren

St. Johnstone

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Mirren (3–0)

St. Johnstone (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

St. Johnstone

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

St. Johnstone

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Mirren	St. Johnstone
Points	6	3
xPoints	3.8	2.7
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	0.98	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.1

Playing style	St. Mirren	St. Johnstone
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.3
Field tilt	0.49	0.58
xT per match	1.1	0.92
xTA per match	0.69	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	27	28
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	10	9
Pass completion %	0.73	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.72
Passes per match	315	400
Passes against per match	349	354
Switches of play per match	17.6	30.6
Long balls per match	22	36

Set pieces	St. Mirren	St. Johnstone
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6	4
Corners against per match	4.5	4
xG per corner	0	0.1
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.62

Other	St. Mirren	St. Johnstone
Throw-in control	0.62	0.76

The goalkeepers	Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren)	Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)
Saves	3	6
Save %	100%	67%
xG prevented	100%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Mirren

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Johnstone

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone according to our model?

The model gives St. Mirren a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 50%, draw 28%, St. Johnstone 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.