Motherwell vs Falkirk: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership9 August 2026Fir Park, Motherwell15°5,1 mm18 km/h

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MotherwellCounter-attacks & crosses

0–0

FalkirkBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Motherwell (51%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.91 (+2 %)

1 · Motherwell 51%X 26%23% Falkirk · 2

51%

26%

23%

Analysis: Motherwell – Falkirk

Marcus Johansson · 6 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Motherwell Football Club sit at a crucial juncture as they prepare to host a struggling Falkirk side. With a 51% probability favouring the home team, there's a clear lean towards Motherwell in this upcoming clash. Falkirk come into the game on a bleak trajectory, having lost four consecutive matches. If ever there was a time for Motherwell to assert dominance, it is now.

While the head-to-head record is not flattering for Motherwell, having failed to secure a win in their last four meetings against Falkirk since 2023, this small sample size shouldn't overshadow the broader narrative. The underlying numbers tell a different story, with expected goals (xG) tilting heavily in favour of Motherwell at 1.74 compared to Falkirk's 1.13. This suggests a sharp edge in offensive potency for the hosts, despite past results.

Motherwell Football Club's inclination towards counter-attacking and crossing could exploit Falkirk's defensive vulnerabilities, especially as the weather conditions might suppress a free-flowing game. With 2.8 mm of rain expected, the damp pitch could stifle Falkirk's balanced and physical style, providing Motherwell with the tactical upper hand.

A 2-1 victory for Motherwell looks plausible, supported by a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and 56% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Yet, the looming possibility of a 1-1 draw, the most likely scoreline at 11%, cannot be ignored, given Motherwell's defensive xGA at 2.0 per match. Despite this, the odds seem to favour Motherwell's attacking edge carrying them through.

For those seeking value, consider William Hill's offer of Motherwell to win at 2.10. While not guaranteed, this represents an enticing edge given the current form and statistical backing. If Motherwell can convert their expected superiority into actual goals, punters might find themselves handsomely rewarded.

Motherwell

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #12xP/match #8Points #3

Key players

Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Lukas FadingerCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.05
Tom SparrowRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

Falkirk

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #8xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Liam HendersonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Motherwell 51% · Draw 26% · Falkirk 23%

Match prediction: Motherwell – Falkirk

Predicted score matrix

Falkirk →

Motherwell →

0–05.9%

0–16.1%

0–23.6%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–09.5%

1–111.4%

1–26.3%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.6%

2–19.7%

2–25.5%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.0%

3–15.6%

3–23.2%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-09%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,74–1,13

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.13

Over 2,555%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Motherwell to win51%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Motherwell to win51%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Lukas Fadinger to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Lukas Fadinger to score23%
Liam Henderson to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw26% probability@3.91PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Motherwell	X	2 · Falkirk
Pinnacle	1.82	EV+ 2% 3.91	4.26

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:52

Odds movement

1-1 %

55 %50 %

1.84 → 1.82

X+4 %

27 %22 %

3.77 → 3.91

2+6 %

26 %21 %

4.02 → 4.26

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.75 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Motherwell 0Draw 2Falkirk 3

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Falkirk dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Motherwell

Falkirk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Motherwell (2–1)

Falkirk (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Motherwell

Falkirk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Motherwell

Falkirk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Motherwell	Falkirk
Points	3	0
xPoints	1.2	0.7
xG per match	1.5	0.71
xGA per match	2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.57

Playing style	Motherwell	Falkirk
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.37	0.55
xT per match	0.42	0.68
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	10	31
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.1	0.48
Entries into the box per match	8	9
Entries into the box against	17	14
Pass completion %	0.83	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.67
Passes per match	453	345
Passes against per match	402	246
Switches of play per match	24.4	33.9
Long balls per match	19	53

Set pieces	Motherwell	Falkirk
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	2	7
Corners against per match	9.2	7
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.88	0.57

Other	Motherwell	Falkirk
Throw-in control	0.78	0.77

The goalkeepers	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)	Scott Bain (Falkirk)
Saves	4	5
Save %	80%	71%
xG prevented	26%	74%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Motherwell

Fixtures, form & tips

Falkirk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Motherwell vs Falkirk according to our model?

The model gives Motherwell a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motherwell 51%, draw 26%, Falkirk 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.