01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Serbian Super LeagueStadion Čair, Niš17°24 km/h
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Radnički NišPossession & high pressvs
OFK BeogradPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Radnički Niš (41%)
Radnički Niš – OFK Beograd · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički Niš 41%X 29%30% OFK Beograd · 2
41%
29%
30%
Analysis: Radnički Niš – OFK Beograd
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The betting odds claim ("odds of 2.4 from Bet365") is not supported by the provided facts and should be removed.
The tension in this clash centers around Radnički Niš's high press meeting OFK Beograd's possession control. The hosts tend to dominate with their aggressive style, while the visitors prefer to hold onto the ball. This tactical duel could define the match, especially given Radnički's slight edge in the model probabilities at 41%, versus OFK's 30%.
The numbers point toward a tight contest. Both teams average over one expected goal per match, with Radnički leading at 1.38 compared to OFK's 1.17. This suggests that the hosts might create more opportunities, although the most probable scoreline of 1-1 (13%) still looms large. The overall chances of over 2.5 goals remain below half at 47%, indicating a cagey affair could be on the cards.
While OFK Beograd has garnered more points this season, the underlying metrics favor Radnički. Their xPoints lead of 8.9 versus OFK's 8.1 suggests that the hosts have been slightly unlucky not to have more points on the board. Additionally, OFK's defense has been more porous, conceding an average of 1.5 xGA per match compared to Radnički's 1.1. This defensive frailty could be pivotal if Radnički can impose their high press effectively.
Despite the head-to-head record favoring OFK, with two wins out of four encounters, the sample is small and less significant than the current form. The betting angle here sees value in Radnički Niš, given their tactical edge and underlying numbers. A 1-1 draw still stands as a potential outcome, but if one side does emerge victorious, Radnički's aggressive style might just tip the balance in their favor.
Radnički NišForm WDLDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #5xT #5xP/match #11Points #13
Key players
- Issah AbassLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.24
- Uroš VitasCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.08
- Radomir MilosavljevićCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
OFK BeogradForm DLWLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #13xP/match #14Points #9
Key players
- Ethan HoardFxG 0.24 · xT -0.01
- Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.40 · xT 0.05
- Miljan MomčilovićCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Radnički Niš – OFK Beograd
Predicted score matrix
OFK Beograd →
Radnički Niš →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–18.8%
0–25.3%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.0%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.7%
2–25.1%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.0%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,38–1,17
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.84
Over 2,547%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Luka Izderić to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Luka Izderić to score23%
- Edmund Addo to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnički Niš | X | 2 · OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Betsson | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.36 | 3.10 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:10
Odds movement
10 %
46 %41 %
2.11 → 2.12
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.36
20 %
32 %27 %
3.09 → 3.10
Over 2,50 %
51 %46 %
1.94 → 1.95
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRadnički Niš 1Draw 1OFK Beograd 2
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički Niš
OFK Beograd
Radnički Niš (3–7)
OFK Beograd (9–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
OFK Beograd
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
OFK Beograd
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički Niš | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 9 |
| xPoints | 8.9 | 8.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | Radnički Niš | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 331 | 318 |
| Passes against per match | 254 | 264 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 16.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Radnički Niš | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.87 |
| Other | Radnički Niš | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš) | Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 16 |
| Save % | 87% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 83% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički Niš vs OFK Beograd according to our model?
The model gives Radnički Niš a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički Niš 41%, draw 29%, OFK Beograd 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.